Europe has become a principal target of Russian aggression, with Russian-linked actors sabotaging critical infrastructure, disrupting aviation and energy systems, penetrating digital networks, surveilling military facilities, and targeting political opponents and defense officials, according to research from five sources. This shadow warfare is a sustained campaign designed to degrade European security while remaining below the threshold that would trigger a military response, the research indicates. It is a system of conflict rooted in ideology, embedded in institutions, and biased toward escalation, synchronized with Moscow's broader war aims in Ukraine since 2022, the same sources report.
Recent drone incidents in Baltic states highlight the cross-border risks. On 25 March, a drone entered Estonian airspace and struck a chimney at the Auvere power station, authorities said. Authorities believe the drone in Estonia entered from Russian airspace by accident and was not directed to target Estonia. That same day, a drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia and crashed in Dobročina village, according to research from five sources. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa stated that initial information indicates the drone was Ukrainian. In Lithuania, authorities believe a drone was part of a Ukrainian attack on the Russian Primorsk oil-loading terminal and likely sent off course by Russian jamming.
In the cyber domain, a cyber espionage operation targeted Ukrainian entities throughout February, using phishing emails to deploy a JavaScript-based backdoor called 'DRILLAPP', research from five sources shows. Cyber security company S2 Grupo reports the operation has overlaps to a campaign by Russian state-sponsored threat group 'Laundry Bear', though the exact evidence supporting this attribution remains unclear.
Positive.
On the battlefield, Russian forces have intensified their assaults across multiple fronts, likely signalling the start of their spring offensive, according to research from five sources. Ukraine continues to target Russia's oil infrastructure intensely as part of efforts to reduce Russian hydrocarbon revenues, the same sources indicate.
Diplomatically, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised what he called 'positive' fresh talks with US mediators aimed at resolving the conflict, including US special envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and US Senator Lindsey Graham. Zelenskyy condemned Russia for responding to his offer of an Easter truce with airstrikes. He added that the Ukrainian and US teams agreed to strengthen a document outlining US security guarantees for any future peace deal, though the specific details of this document are not publicly known.
Talks with Russia are deadlocked over Ukraine refusing to cede to Russian demands to relinquish remaining parts of the Donbas region, research from five sources reports.
Rather hysterical.
US political pressure is affecting European allies. A report by the Financial Times says Donald Trump threatened to stop supplying weapons for Ukraine to pressure European allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump described by an unnamed source as 'rather hysterical'. As a result of Trump's threat, a group of countries including the UK, France, and Germany issued a statement on 19 March expressing readiness to contribute to efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, according to research from five sources.
In a recent military action, Russia carried out a rare daytime drone attack on Ukraine, killing four people in the Cherkasy region and damaging energy infrastructure and industrial facilities in the west, Ukrainian officials reported.
Humanitarian efforts continue amid the conflict. A Food Without Borders food truck has appeared in Ukraine, equipped to cook up to 5,000 meals a day, initiated by the Iskra Dobra charitable foundation with support from multiple partners, research from five sources indicates. The current status and impact of this initiative are not fully detailed. Separately, the MHP-Hromadske Charitable Foundation and MHP have donated more than 13,000 tons of chicken over three years of war, according to Oleksandr Pakholyuk, Director of the MHP-Community Charitable Foundation.
Low-confidence reports from major media suggest an organization has conducted 200 aid shipments, including food and medical supplies, but the specific organization behind these shipments is not identified.
In Lithuania, a Ukrainian woman in Vilnius was involved in a sting operation where devices in an IKEA bag were determined to be detonators, leading to police tracking a man to a bus, research from five sources reports. The exact nature and scale of this operation, as detailed by The New Yorker, remains unclear.