Russia's foreign ministry has accused the Baltic states of assisting Ukraine by allowing the use of their airspace for attacks on Russian oil terminals in the Baltic Sea. The ministry issued veiled threats against Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. All three Baltic states have repeatedly rejected Russia's claims as disinformation.
Estonia's Colonel Ants Kiviselg said the country has not and will not allow its territory or airspace to be used for attacks against Russia. Latvia's Defense Ministry similarly denied Russia's assertions of allowing the use of its airspace. The European Commission said Brussels was closely monitoring the situation and Russian threats for now.
The European Commission also emphasized that if Russia were to attack any EU member state, it would be considered an attack on the entire EU. The accusations come amid Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian Baltic Sea targets. Two Ukrainian drones strayed into Latvia and Estonia amid a mass overnight attack on targets inside Russia on 25 March.
Ukraine's military recently intensified strikes on Russian oil terminals on the Baltic Sea coast. Kyiv primarily targeted Russia's northwestern Leningrad region, which is situated on the Baltic Sea and neighboring Estonia. The incursions occurred amid one of Ukraine's largest mass deepstrike drone attacks on Russia, with two key targets on the Baltic Sea coast struck: a terminal in Ust-Luga and a military icebreaker in Vyborg.
Kyiv forces have now reportedly restarted their attacks on the Leningrad region overnight on Tuesday, with explosions seen near the Ust-Luga port. Ust-Luga, home to a large Russian oil terminal, has been hit at least five times between 22 and 31 March. Ust-Luga is one of Russia's largest ports on the Baltic Sea and a major hub for exporting crude oil and petroleum products.
Separately, Russia's spy sensors were discovered in UK waters, some washed ashore and others found by Royal Navy mine-hunting vessels. The spy sensors likely targeted the UK navy's four Vanguard-class submarines capable of carrying nuclear missiles. Experts believe Russia may be mapping critical underwater infrastructure for sabotage.
Russia has established remote seabed platforms off the UK coast to recharge sensors and map undersea cables for future attacks. The exact nature and capabilities of these sensors, and whether they have successfully collected sensitive data, remain unknown. These activities form part of Russia's broader hybrid warfare against NATO allies.
Grey zone warfare refers to actions that fall between peace and open war, such as undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, espionage, and sabotage. Ninety percent of UK data comes from the sea and 60% of gas comes from Norway by one line, making the UK vulnerable. Kremlin military files revealed 32 locations across NATO countries that Russia could strike with nuclear and conventional missiles, including three in the UK.
Russian hostile acts on UK soil have included the use of a deadly nerve agent in Salisbury, cyber incidents, espionage, and arson. Suspicious Russian maritime activities have been observed near UK and Norwegian waters. In January 2025, the Russian ship Yantar was spotted in UK territorial waters near the English Channel.
Russia claims the Yantar is a research vessel for deep-sea rescues. In Kirkenes, Norway, Russian fishing trawlers docked, including the Arka-33, which stayed for weeks. The Arka-33 belongs to a Russian crab-fishing company whose CEO used to run private security companies.
The wife of the CEO is a member of the Russian parliament and appears on sanctions lists. The Russian government declared that commercial vessels could be co-opted by the military for any purpose. Locals in Kirkenes noticed Russian fishermen were younger and sometimes did physical-training exercises on deck.
Russian sailors carry handwritten seafarer passports, making it unclear who is on board. Whether these trawlers are involved in espionage or other covert activities, as suggested by their unusual behavior and connections, remains uncertain. Russia is also reorganizing its military forces.
Russia is incorporating three former Wagner assault detachments into its national guard (Rosgvardia). Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on 25 December authorizing the national guard to form its own volunteer formations. Rosgvardia will likely deploy its new volunteer detachments to Ukraine and Africa.
How this integration will affect the conflict in Ukraine and operations in Africa is not yet clear. Meanwhile, Russia continues attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets. Five people were killed in a Russian drone attack on a market in Nikopol, Ukraine.
At least 19 people were injured in the drone attack on Nikopol, including a 14-year-old girl. Ukraine's prosecutor general's office claimed the attack was yet another war crime. The scale of Russian drone attacks on Ukraine remains significant.
Russia fired a total of 286 drones at Ukraine overnight, with 260 downed. Russia's defense ministry claimed its forces fired precision weapons at military-industrial and energy facilities used by Ukraine. Uncertainties persist about Russia's specific threats against the Baltic states and the full extent of its hybrid warfare activities against NATO allies, including any undiscovered sabotage or cyber operations.
Questions also remain about the exact capabilities of the spy sensors found in UK waters and the true purpose of Russian fishing trawler activities in Norwegian waters.