Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of helping Iran in its war against the US and Israel by spying on the Diego Garcia base in the Chagos Islands. Zelenskyy claimed Russia used satellites to photograph the joint UK-US base Diego Garcia 'in the interests of Iran', with Moscow allegedly photographed the base in the Indian Ocean last Tuesday. He also stated that Russian satellites photographed US military bases in the Gulf multiple times before an alleged Iranian attack. This surveillance activity underscores growing allegations of covert cooperation between Moscow and Tehran amid heightened Middle Eastern tensions.
Iran has conducted missile attacks targeting Western military installations, including firing two ballistic missiles towards Diego Garcia some 2,360 miles away, with one shot down and the other failing in flight. The missile incident led to warnings that Iran had developed weaponry capable of striking London. Additionally, Iran used missiles and drones to hit the Prince Sultan base on Friday, injuring 12 American troops. These strikes demonstrate Iran's expanding reach and precision capabilities against distant targets.
Beyond Diego Garcia, Russian satellite surveillance has reportedly targeted broader Middle Eastern military and economic infrastructure. Zelenskyy said Russian satellites imaged Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia on March 24 and 25. He also listed other facilities imaged by Russian satellites, including Diego Garcia, Kuwait International Airport, and oil fields in Saudi Arabia, and claimed that on March 26th, Russia imaged the Shaybah oil and gas field in Saudi Arabia, İncirlik Air Base in Türkiye, and Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This pattern suggests Russia is gathering intelligence on both military assets and critical energy infrastructure across the region.
UK and US officials have assessed that Russian-Iranian intelligence cooperation is likely occurring. UK Defence Secretary John Healey said Vladimir Putin's 'hidden hand' is likely helping Iran in the conflict. The Ministry of Defence previously said it was 'highly likely' Russia had shared intelligence with Iran before the outbreak of the war. These assessments align with Zelenskyy's allegations.
The US has responded militarily from Diego Garcia, with American bombers launching 'defensive' strikes on Iran, including missile sites targeting the Strait of Hormuz, from the base. UK political decisions regarding base access have been contentious, as Sir Keir Starmer initially refused Donald Trump's request to use the Diego Garcia base to launch bombing raids on Iran, before allowing limited US action from the airfield following a ramping up of tensions and scathing criticism from the President. This highlights the diplomatic and strategic complexities for the UK.
The conflict has seen ongoing attacks on multiple Middle Eastern bases, with the Al Udeid base also coming under attack during the war, which has now raged for more than a month. This prolonged engagement indicates the conflict's resilience.
Separately, drone incidents in Baltic states have occurred during Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets. On March 25, a drone entered Estonian airspace and struck a chimney at the Auvere power station in Ida-Viru county. Estonian authorities believe the drone entered from Russian airspace by accident and was not directed to target Estonia. There were no injuries and no immediate damage to the power plant from the drone incident in Estonia. On the same day, another drone entered Latvian airspace from Russia and crashed in Dobročina village in the Krāslava region. Both drone incidents in Estonia and Latvia reportedly took place during a Ukrainian attack on Russia’s Ust-Luga port. Earlier, on March 23, a drone entered Lithuania’s airspace and crashed into a frozen lake near the border with Belarus.
Conflicting attributions of these Baltic drone incidents highlight regional tensions. Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa stated that initial information indicates the drone in Latvia was Ukrainian. Lithuanian authorities believe the drone was part of a Ukrainian attack on the Russian Primorsk oil-loading terminal and was likely sent off course by Russian jamming. The drone incidents underscore persistent regional tensions and spillover risks from the Russo-Ukrainian war, as well as potential air defence gaps over the Baltic region.
Russian cyber operations continue targeting Ukraine, with a cyber espionage operation in February targeting Ukrainian entities using phishing emails with charity- and judicial-themed lures to deploy the DRILLAPP backdoor. The cyber operation has overlaps with a January campaign by Russian state-sponsored threat group 'Laundry Bear' (Void Blizzard). These activities demonstrate Russia's persistent use of digital tools for espionage.
Military developments on the ground show Russian forces intensifying assaults across multiple fronts, likely signaling the start of their spring offensive. Ukraine continues to target Russia’s oil infrastructure intensely to reduce Russian hydrocarbon revenues. This reciprocal targeting of energy assets highlights the economic dimensions of the war.
The EU has introduced tough travel restrictions on Russian citizens, ending multiple-entry Schengen visas and requiring a new visa for each trip. European officials point to incidents like rail sabotage in Germany, arson attempts in the Baltics, and suspected Russian-linked drone activity across the Nordics as reasons for the visa tightening. Intelligence agencies warn that Russia uses tourists, business travelers, and 'nontraditional actors' to move people, money, and equipment into the EU. Schengen visas for Russians dropped from over 4 million in 2019 to around 500,000 in 2023 after the EU suspended its visa facilitation agreement.
Exceptions to the new EU visa rules exempt dissidents, independent journalists, human rights defenders, and close family members of Russians in the EU or EU citizens in Russia. Russian hostile acts on UK soil have included the Salisbury nerve agent attack, cyber incidents targeting parliamentarians, espionage, and arson, providing context for broader concerns.
Russian underwater surveillance in UK waters has raised alarms, with Russia’s spy sensors discovered in UK waters, likely targeting Vanguard-class submarines capable of carrying nuclear missiles. Experts believe Russia may be mapping critical underwater infrastructure for sabotage. In January 2025, the Russian ship Yantar was spotted in UK territorial waters near the English Channel; Russia claims it is a research vessel for deep-sea rescues.
Russian nuclear strike capabilities and grey zone warfare tactics pose additional threats. Kremlin military files from 2024 revealed 32 locations across NATO countries, including three in the UK, that Russia could strike with nuclear and conventional missiles. Grey zone warfare includes undermining oil and gas supplies, money laundering, espionage, and sabotage.
Zelenskyy has warned about sanctions easing, questioning the easing of sanctions on Russia, arguing it provides intelligence for strikes against Western and Middle Eastern targets. He also highlighted Ukraine's expertise in drone warfare and defense systems, positioning it as a key partner for global defense solutions.
Key unknowns persist, including whether Russia's satellite surveillance directly enabled Iranian missile attacks, the exact nature of Russia's intelligence sharing with Iran, the specific targets and success rate of American strikes from Diego Garcia, the full scope of Russian underwater mapping in UK waters, and the effectiveness of EU visa restrictions in preventing Russian espionage.