The pace of Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine has accelerated since the fall of 2025, according to research from seven sources. Russia now believes that it is winning the war in Ukraine, multiple reports indicate, and still maintains the strategic objective of bringing about the subjugation of Ukraine. However, the Institute for the Study of War noted in 2025 that these territorial gains remain slow.
Russia is sustaining significant casualties even as it advances. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated that Ukraine is tiring out Russia, and he reported that Russia lost 35,000 men in December and 30,000 in January. Sergej Aleksasjenko, a Russian economist in exile, observed that at the beginning of the year, the Russian army was 25 kilometers from Slovjansk, and now the distance is 18 kilometers, indicating slow advancement.
Russia faces challenges in mobilizing additional forces. According to Aleksasjenko, since the beginning of 2023, Russia has maintained a fairly even number of soldiers in Ukraine, not over 750,000 and not under 700,000. He added that President Vladimir Putin could mobilize an additional half a million soldiers, but the problem is there are not enough trained officers. What primarily interests Putin is the Donetsk region, Aleksasjenko noted.
Sergej Aleksasjenko is one of Russia's most well-known economists in exile, affiliated with the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, which is funded by oligarch and Putin critic Michail Chodorkovskij.
Four years into the war, sanctions have not affected Russian oil production, research from seven sources shows. Russia's oil output in 2025 was only 2.5% below 2021 levels, largely in line with OPEC+ quotas, and it continues to export roughly three-quarters of its oil production. Sanctions have reshaped logistics, counterparties, and price discounts for Russian oil but have not substantially reduced export volumes, according to the research.
Despite sanctions, the Russian economy demonstrates resilience. According to Aleksasjenko, those who still think the war can be won through sanctions against Russia do not understand how the Russian economy works. He explained that the Russian economy is at the beginning of the production chain and produces commodities like oil, gas, metals, fertilizer, and grain, which can always be sold on the world market, and that EU and US sanctions only apply to their markets. The Russian economy is performing worse all the time, with growth of only 1% this year, and experts predict growth of 0.5% between 2027 and 2028, but Aleksasjenko asserted the country has an economic base that is difficult to shake. Global price declines and rouble appreciation primarily drive lower export and fiscal oil revenues for Russia, research indicates, and between May and December 2025, Russia's oil-related budget revenues were 35% lower year-over-year.
Russia holds critical positions in global commodity markets. Aleksasjenko stated that Russia produces 50% of the world's palladium, a precious metal in the platinum family, without which car catalytic converters cannot be made. He also noted that Russia is second in the world in aluminum production and third in nickel production.
I said from the beginning that the EU would not be able to seize the assets because it would lead to legal consequences.
After sanctions, Russia reoriented its economy toward large-scale state investment in defence, arms production, and military recruitment, according to research. In 2025, the Russian state planned to spend more than 13.5 trillion rubles on national defence, representing over 6% of GDP. In 2024, recruitment bonuses for Russian soldiers more than doubled, reaching up to two million rubles per recruit in some regions.
Russia's proposed surrender terms for Ukraine are harsh. Russian surrender terms include Ukraine ceding territory already under Russian control along with Kharkiv, and in some versions Odessa; agreeing not to join NATO; and maintaining a head of state approved by Russia, research shows. Russia's only significant concession in proposed surrender terms is that what is left of Ukraine can join the EU. Russia's planning horizon for achieving victory in Ukraine is by 2026.
Talks with Russia are deadlocked over the question of land, with Ukraine refusing to cede to Russian demands that it relinquish remaining parts of Donbas, according to research.
Recent Russian military actions include intensified attacks. Russia carried out a rare daytime drone attack on Ukraine, killing four people in the Cherkasy region and damaging energy infrastructure and industrial facilities, Ukrainian officials reported. Russia launched more than 360 drones in the attack. The Russian government declared that commercial vessels could be co-opted by the military for any purpose. Locals in Kirkenes noticed that Russian fishermen were younger than those who had come before the war in Ukraine, and that they sometimes did physical-training exercises on the decks of their ships.
Russia is actively recruiting intelligence assets and saboteurs in Europe. MI5 has been ordered to prioritize targeting spies over terrorists due to a significant recruitment drive by Russia, China, and Iran, government sources said. A senior government official stated that Russia lost a significant number of intelligence officers overnight following the 2018 Novichok attack in Salisbury and has been attempting to recruit new assets. Research indicates Russia is recruiting violent right-wing extremists to carry out sabotage attacks in Europe and the U.K.
Criticism of the Western response to the war has emerged. According to Aleksasjenko, European politicians prefer to talk about sanctions for political reasons, not wanting to do what is actually needed: give Ukraine more weapons. He argued that Ukraine needs Taurus missiles (German medium-range missiles) and other weapons to manage on the battlefield, which is how wars are won. Aleksasjenko also called the EU's failure to unfreeze frozen Russian assets to use as security for a loan to Ukraine embarrassing.
This combination of military persistence, economic adaptation, and aggressive intelligence operations suggests Russia is preparing for a prolonged conflict. Western intelligence agencies are concerned about Russia's strategic endurance and its efforts to undermine European security.
Key unknowns persist, including how many trained officers Russia currently has available to support potential mobilization of additional soldiers. The full extent of Russia's recruitment of violent right-wing extremists for sabotage attacks in Europe and the U.K. also remains unclear.