A YouGov poll published on April 26–27 shows Reform UK leading with 26%, projecting 296 MPs. The party has won 68 council by-elections in the past year. The sample size and projection methodology remain unknown.
The Conservative vote share dropped 7% in the by-election, and Labour did not field a candidate. National polls have suggested Reform UK's lead has narrowed in recent weeks, though the exact date of the next local polls is unclear.
Another big win for Reform! Taking another previously ‘safe’ Tory seat.
Zia Yusuf, Reform UK's home affairs spokesman, doubted that support had slumped. "Another big win for Reform! Taking another previously safe Tory seat," he wrote on social media. "Straight in at 45%. Don't believe the fake polls."
Straight in at 45%. Don’t believe the fake polls.