Electoral Calculus projects that Nigel Farage's Reform UK would have 188 MPs, the Conservatives 159, and Labour would collapse to 86 seats. The Greens would win 71 constituencies, including Keir Starmer's Holborn & St Pancras seat, while the Liberal Democrats would get 61, the SNP 44, and Plaid Cymru 17. Even with independents and Northern Ireland parties, a 'rainbow coalition' would struggle to command a majority, which is technically 326 of 650 MPs. A hung parliament with such a wide split is thought to be without precedent in modern politics.
The projections use the MRP technique, mapping poll findings onto demographic characteristics, and account for tactical voting, which the team believes will reduce Reform's performance. The Find Out Now poll of 5,559 people between March 27 and April 7 shows Reform on 24% national support, down from its January peak when it was projected to win 335 seats. The Conservatives recovered to 21% and Labour to 17%.
When it comes to pinpointing who voters want making decisions on their behalf, it is clear that Reform UK do not have the trust of the public.
Kevin Craig, head of PLMR, said: "Reform's momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now looking ahead to the General Election is that it is all up for grabs."
Reform's momentum appears to be slowing, which points towards a more competitive environment and the likelihood of a hung parliament. The message right now looking ahead to the General Election is that it is all up for grabs.
PLMR's latest polling also highlights a critical challenge ahead of the local elections – many voters simply don't know who is running their local council. When fewer than half can correctly identify who is in charge, it becomes much harder for parties to rely on their local record to win support.
For the Government, the priority now is to rebuild that connection with voters, showing clearly how decisions taken nationally and locally are making a difference to people's everyday lives.