Reform UK leads in national polls with 27%, according to a Find Out Now survey from March 4-6. The party has won 63 new council seats since the July 2024 General Election, including recent victories in the Coggeshall ward on Braintree council with 30.7% of the vote and the Spital ward in Tamworth from Labour with 44.6% of the vote. Reform UK also won the Hakin by-election on Pembrokeshire County Council, gaining its first councillor in Wales. Additional wins include Sleaford Westholme on North Kesteven District Council with 45% of the vote and Brumby ward on North Lincolnshire Council with 52.8% of the vote.
Labour gained a Reform-held seat in Murton, Durham, with a 17.6% swing, where the turnout was 24.9%. However, Labour has lost 51 councillors since the July 2024 General Election. The Conservatives held several wards, including Axholme Central ward on North Lincolnshire Council with 49.2% of the vote and Halstead, Knockholt and Badgers Mount ward on Sevenoaks District Council with 44.2% of the vote. The Conservatives also won Hextable in Sevenoaks with 38.9% of the vote, ahead of Reform UK with 26.3%, and won Stanford on the Vale of White Horse District council from the Liberal Democrats with 45.9% of the vote.
The Tories finished fourth in one of their safest seats in the country.
The Green Party won Aigburth in Liverpool from the Liberal Democrats with 45% of the vote. The Green Party also won the Cliftonville ward on Thanet council from Reform UK with a swing of 17 points. The Green Party's by-election win in Cliftonville was sparked after the incumbent was jailed for 12 months. The Liberal Democrats held two seats and gained two more in council by-elections.
Reform UK launched its London election campaign in Fairfield Halls Croydon, aiming to win councils in the capital for the first time. Council elections will be held across London in May. Reform UK is targeting five seats in local council by-elections this week, none of which have been contested by the party before.
Andrew Husband, Reform’s leader of Durham County Council, credited Labour’s candidate for winning in Murton, Durham. A Reform UK spokesman said they ran an incredible, positive and professional campaign in Cliftonville but pinned their defeat on the Conservatives. The exact number of council seats Reform UK aims to win in the May local elections across Britain remains unclear, as does what specific seats the party is targeting in the upcoming London council elections beyond general mentions of outer eastern boroughs. How Labour plans to counter Reform UK's gains in traditional Labour strongholds like the Red Wall towns is not specified, and the impact of Reform UK's first Welsh council win on the upcoming Senedd elections is uncertain. Whether the Green Party's surge in polls and by-election wins will translate into significant gains in the May local elections also remains to be seen.