In Heinola, the temperature rose to 12.6 degrees Celsius on Sunday, setting the record for mainland Finland this year, according to reports. This warmth capped several days of sunny, spring-like weather, but Monday will be the last somewhat fine day for a while, as noted by meteorologists. The weather will be unsettled in the coming days, marking a sharp turn from the recent clear skies.
This warmth has arrived about a month ahead of the usual spring schedule. Snow has practically disappeared from southern and central Finland, though local patches may remain in shaded areas, according to Ilta-Sanomat, which cited meteorologist Eevi Silvennoinen describing the snow conditions. Southern and central parts of the country are almost snow-free, while Lapland still has plenty of snow, though it is also starting to decrease there.
Probably a mix of rain and sleet.
Monday's weather will follow a spring-like pattern in terms of temperatures, though not reaching last weekend's readings. On Monday, temperatures may rise to around 8–9 degrees Celsius in the southeast and Ostrobothnia. Elsewhere in the country, daytime temperatures will hover around plus or minus 5 degrees Celsius, with lower temperatures in Lapland. On Monday afternoon, weak rain showers are forecast for southern and central parts of the country, moving eastward with the wind. In northern parts of the country, there may be showers on Monday, which could bring a mix of rain and sleet, possibly even light snow in places.
On Tuesday, temperatures may rise to nearly Monday's levels. From Tuesday, the weather will become grayer across the whole country, with increased cloudiness and rain in many places, though not large amounts of rain, according to TV4 Nyheterna, which cited meteorologist Toni Fuentes describing the pattern. Rainfall may be heavier on Tuesday, with the first rains arriving from the west on Tuesday evening. More significant rainfall is also expected on Wednesday, with rain in the south and sleet or even snow further north. According to TV4 Nyheterna, Toni Fuentes noted that on Wednesday, it will be a lot of clouds and rain.
Southern and central parts of the country are almost snow-free. Lapland still has plenty of snow, though it is also starting to decrease there.
Gusty winds are forecast for the start of the week, with strong gusts possible on Monday especially in Lapland, and windy conditions continuing on Tuesday. Daily temperature variations remain large. At the start of the week, nighttime temperatures will still drop close to zero in southern Finland, with frosty nights still in Lapland.
No major change from current conditions is visible in longer-term forecasts for the coming week, according to Ilta-Sanomat, which cited Eevi Silvennoinen describing the outlook as quite similar to what has been seen so far—neither particularly warm nor cold, with no signs of a late winter setback this week or next. Despite spring seeming to have a firm grip on large parts of Sweden with clear and sunny weather, two setbacks are expected ahead. Saturday may be considered a foretaste of what comes later, with proper setbacks expected towards the end of next week and next weekend.
Quite similar weather to what has been seen so far. That is, neither particularly warm nor cold. There are no signs of a late winter setback this week or next.
The first setback could involve Norwegian cold arriving soon, which might lower temperatures notably. According to Aftonbladet, meteorologist Lasse Rydqvist described this as potentially the first setback for spring. In the second half of the week, several low-pressure systems will sneak in from the Norwegian Sea and lower temperatures, noticeable especially in northern parts where snow may fall towards the end of the week and next weekend, and in southern parts where temperatures may drop to 5–6 degrees instead of 14–15 degrees. It is necessary to prepare for rapid swings, as these are fairly normal temperatures for the season, with spring-winter in Sweden now, so we can expect a couple of setbacks ahead.
Weekend weather will bring mixed conditions. Already on Saturday, somewhat cooler weather is expected in southern parts of Sweden, with no warming sun in the south but very fine weather in the north and eastern mountains, according to TV4 Nyheterna, which cited meteorologist Ulrika Elvgren describing the pattern. It will snow on Saturday in Svealand—in Dalarna, Värmland, and Bergslagen—then turn to rain with a lot of clouds, so it will not be as warm as today. On Sunday, fine spring weather appears to make a comeback in large parts of the country, with sun and temperatures around ten degrees.
It is unsettled weather in the coming days.
Next weekend, a significant weather shift is expected, with a general change in weather patterns as cold air moves down and low-pressure systems come in, potentially leading to more drama in the weather, including deep low-pressure systems, larger precipitation areas, and snowstorms. According to TV4 Nyheterna, Ulrika Elvgren described this as a setup for a bit more drama in the weather, with deep low pressures, perhaps larger precipitation areas and snowstorms, though it is too far ahead to give details. Easter brings really nasty weather in Sweden, with the British storm Dave passing on Sunday, bringing both rain and storm gusts. Easter Eve had a snowy start in several places in Sweden, due to one of several low-pressure systems currently passing over, giving snowfall that turns to rain.
Regional variations will be pronounced. On Monday, there will still be some sun in southern Sweden, though with more clouds than during the weekend. In Norrland, it will already be more cloudy and windy on Monday, especially in the mountains where there is a yellow warning for strong wind combined with snowfall. A high-pressure system in southern parts of the country is moving eastward, and various low-pressure systems are passing through northern Scandinavia, creating strong winds, especially in the north, according to TV4 Nyheterna, which cited Toni Fuentes explaining the wind patterns. No clear improvement is seen in the coming days, with low-pressure systems following one another until signs of a high-pressure system possibly returning by the weekend. Spring warmth is not yet in sight in northeastern Skåne.
Then we have a weather system that causes increased cloudiness and rain in many places. Not large amounts of rain, but it can rain here and there.
The longer-term outlook includes uncertainties. Towards the end of the week, the weather may become more stable, with somewhat high-pressure-like conditions, though this is an uncertain forecast, according to TV4 Nyheterna, which cited Toni Fuentes describing the possibility. Surprises are still possible at this stage of spring. We must go through seven setbacks before spring is here for real, according to TV4 Nyheterna, which cited Ulrika Elvgren noting the pattern.
Climate change implications point to future shifts. Even in summer, it will become warmer, and heatwaves are expected to become longer, potentially nearly twice as long by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 scenario, or nearly four times as long under RCP8.5. By the end of the 21st century, Umeå's future climate will correspond to the climate in southern Svealand at the end of the 20th century under the lower climate scenario RCP4.5, or to Skåne's climate under the higher scenario RCP8.5. Deep snow will become rare by the end of the century, reducing spring floods in all watercourses, while winter flows increase as more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, potentially raising the risk of landslides and erosion along watercourses. Less precipitation during summer leads to drought in forests and soil, increasing fire risk, and changes in precipitation patterns lead to longer periods of groundwater drought.
When there is a high pressure in the south and a low pressure in the north, it becomes very windy. It will blow from the southwest tomorrow due to the low pressure, but also due to the high pressure.
Spring flood forecasts are being closely monitored. Vattenfall estimates the spring flood in the Lule River using measurements from helicopters, among other methods, with this year's forecast being a spring flood slightly below normal, but weather will greatly influence it. About half of all precipitation in their forecast area falls as snow, and they still use the same method as before for measurements.
Key unknowns remain regarding precipitation amounts and snow accumulation. Forecasts mention rain and showers but not specific amounts, making it unclear how much precipitation exactly is expected in the coming days across different regions. It is also uncertain whether the predicted snow in northern Sweden and Finland will accumulate significantly or just be light, which could affect travel and local conditions.
On Wednesday, it will be a lot of clouds and rain.
Further uncertainties involve the duration of the unsettled pattern and storm timing. How long the unsettled weather pattern will last before a return to more stable, high-pressure conditions is not specified in current forecasts. The exact timing and intensity of the British storm Dave mentioned for Easter Sunday in Sweden also remain unclear, as does how the spring flood forecast being slightly below normal will impact water management and energy production in affected areas.
We see that it is low pressure after low pressure right now. First by the weekend, there are signs that a high pressure may return.
Towards the end of the week, it may become more stable weather. Somewhat high-pressure-like one could say, but it is an uncertain forecast.
Tomorrow it will temporarily be a bit cooler. We get no warming sun in the south, but in the north it will be very fine, in the eastern mountains.
It is set up for proper setbacks towards the end of next week and next weekend. But we must go through seven setbacks before spring here is for real.
It becomes a general change in the weather situation because then the cold air comes down and these low pressures come in. So it is set up for that there can be a bit more drama in the weather.
Deep low pressures, perhaps larger precipitation areas and snowstorms. It is too far ahead to give details, but we see the setbacks in the sights.
It can become the first setback for spring.
It will be a lot of room for spring sun the coming days.
On Tuesday, it can be up to 15 degrees in eastern Skåne and along the east coast northward. If you find a sheltered spot somewhere, it might feel like 20 degrees.
Above all, it will be noticeable in northern parts of the country, where towards the end of the week and next weekend, a little snow may fall.
But also in southern parts of the country, the swing will be noticeable. It will probably be 5–6 degrees instead of 14–15 degrees.
Actually, it is fairly normal temperatures for the season. It is really spring-winter in Sweden right now, so we can probably expect a couple of setbacks ahead.