Angela Rayner has issued a stark warning that Labour is 'running out of time' to deliver change, telling supporters that the 'very survival of the Labour Party is at stake'. In a speech, she criticised the government's immigration policy as 'un-British' and suggested the public view Labour as having 'represented the establishment'. The remarks come as Rayner is widely seen as a potential successor to Sir Keir Starmer in the event of a leadership contest, according to Telegraph analysis.
Rayner's leadership ambitions have been fuelled by growing discontent within the party. According to HuffPost UK, Labour MP Karl Turner said that if the party does badly in the May local elections, Starmer will face a challenge. Labour is expected to lose hundreds of council seats to Reform UK and the Greens, according to Telegraph analysis. Rayner has also been strengthening ties with Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, who backed her criticism and is seen as a potential ally or rival. According to major media reports, the pair held secret late-night talks at her home, and have a private agreement not to run against each other. Burnham, according to Daily Mail - News, described Rayner as the 'Queen of the North'.
We're running out of time.
However, Rayner's path to leadership is complicated by a tax scandal. She resigned from Cabinet in September after a Telegraph investigation into her tax affairs, and is awaiting the outcome of an HMRC investigation. According to HuffPost UK, a former aide said she was not up to running her department, and a Labour source said voters think she doesn't pay her tax. The exact timeline and outcome of the HMRC investigation remain unknown.
The prospect of a Rayner leadership has rattled financial markets. According to Capital Economics market analyst Joe Maher, a Rayner leadership could increase gilt yields by 20 basis points and weaken sterling by 1%. The cost of UK government borrowing, as measured by the 10-year gilt yield, hit 4.9% on Friday afternoon, the highest level since the 2008 financial crash, surpassing the level seen at the mini budget, according to research from three sources. Consumers are expected to pay £332 more on energy bills from July, and some economists envisage inflation could reach 5%, up from the current 3%. Traders are pricing in three interest rate hikes this year, expected in April, July and November, bringing the base rate to 4.5%. Government borrowing cost the state £5bn more in February than a year earlier, according to research. According to City AM, a City source described investors as taking Rayner's attempts to reassure them 'with a pinch of salt'.
It's un-British.
Rayner is planning a month-long campaign tour ahead of local elections, according to major media reports, and has cut down on drinking to craft a more stateswoman-like persona. Her speech is considered part of efforts to encourage Starmer to move his policy platform to the left after Labour's defeat to the Green Party at the Gorton and Denton by-election, according to BBC analysis. According to Daily Express - Politics, Rayner said there are 'more important questions' than the Mandelson scandal.
Meanwhile, the government is pushing ahead with immigration reforms that have sparked a major rebellion. Ministers want to double the time for most migrant workers to qualify for permanent residence from five to 10 years; for refugees it could take 20 years, according to Home Office proposals. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood described the migration reforms as 'fair' and required to avoid a 'drain on our public finances'. However, the prime minister's press secretary would not explicitly say the government was committed to introducing the key plank of immigration reforms, saying it would consider responses to the consultation. The Home Office later clarified that it is consulting to apply the change to those currently in the UK who have not received settled status, and will double the route to settlement from five to 10 years. Mahmood hopes to apply the change retrospectively to more than two million migrants who arrived from 2021 to 2024 under Boris Johnson's government. Net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024, according to Home Office figures. Dozens of Labour MPs have threatened to vote against the migration changes in a major rebellion, according to research. The scope of retrospective application remains unclear, affecting millions of migrants and the scale of political backlash.
Investors are taking her attempts to reassure them with a pinch of salt.
On foreign policy, UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper condemned Iran's attacks on Gulf partners and critical energy infrastructure, and called for restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Foreign Office spokesperson. Cooper called for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations, jointly with France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan. She stated that UK defensive operations were a response to Iranian aggression against Gulf partners who had not attacked Iran, and warned Iran against targeting UK bases, territory or interests directly. Iran stated that Foreign Minister Araghchi told Cooper the UK was 'participating in aggression' by allowing the US to use UK bases to attack Iran.
In other political developments, three victims of Provisional IRA bombings in England discontinued their damages claim against former Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams, according to research. Cabinet Office minister Nick Thomas-Symonds shared 'impatience with the pace of change', according to a press conference. According to Daily Express - Politics, Sir James Cleverly described Rayner as a 'disaster for the country'.
If we do badly in May, he will face a challenge.
She wasn't up to running her department.
Voters think she doesn't pay her tax.
There is an impatience with the pace of change.
She would be a disaster for the country.
There are more important questions than the Mandelson scandal.
The very survival of the Labour Party is at stake.
These reforms are fair and necessary to avoid a drain on our public finances.