Rumen Radev won a landslide victory in yesterday's parliamentary election in Bulgaria. The coalition Progressive Bulgaria received 38 percent of the votes according to an exit poll, though preliminary results from 91.68 percent of ballots show the left-leaning party achieving 44.7 percent, a result that far surpasses opinion polls that placed it at 31 percent. This discrepancy indicates a conflict between early exit poll data and more comprehensive preliminary results regarding the winning party's vote share.
The parliamentary election is the eighth in the country in five years. Bulgaria is in a political crisis and no parties have managed to form a government after the two previous elections. A caretaker government has governed the country since May, highlighting the persistent instability that has characterized Bulgarian politics in recent years.
During the election campaign, Rumen Radev focused on criticizing corruption and powerful oligarchs, according to Reuters. He also opposed military aid to Ukraine and argued for removing import barriers for Russian oil and gas, positioning himself with pro-Russian energy policies. These stances formed a central part of his platform, appealing to voters frustrated with entrenched interests and seeking alternative foreign policy directions.
Rumen Radev is described as a Eurosceptic, according to Reuters. According to risk analyst Mario Bikarski to AP, Radev's program is sufficiently vague for the coalition to cooperate with almost all other parties in the newly elected parliament, potentially facilitating broad coalition building. This strategic ambiguity may prove crucial in navigating Bulgaria's fragmented political landscape.
If Radev's previous statements are indicative, we could end up in a parliament where the majority is not pro-European for the first time in Bulgaria's modern history.
Voter turnout appears to land at around 43 percent according to the exit poll. However, voter turnout increased sharply to a preliminary 47–48 percent, compared to 39 percent in the most recent election in October 2024, based on preliminary results from 91.68 percent of ballots. This discrepancy suggests different sources are reporting different turnout figures, which could affect perceptions of the election's legitimacy and public engagement.
Other major parties saw mixed performances in the election. The conservative ruling party GERB received 16 percent of the votes according to an exit poll, though Boyko Borisov's GERB – long Bulgaria's dominant political force – received just over 13 percent in preliminary counts. The centrist coalition PP-DB received 14 percent of the votes according to an exit poll. The Bulgarian Socialist Party fell below the four percent threshold for the first time in the party's history, while the nationalist and openly pro-Russian Revival (Vazrazjdane) narrowly cleared the threshold with 4.4 percent.
Progressive Bulgaria could potentially govern with an absolute majority – for the first time in nearly thirty years, according to major media reports. The party is heading toward 129–130 of parliament's 240 seats – a potential absolute majority. It would be the first time a single party achieves that since 1997, though whether they will secure this majority remains unknown and could significantly impact their governance approach.
An anonymous EU diplomat said to Politico that Radev is in a completely different league than Orbán regarding the ability and willingness to disrupt the union's work from within. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung points in an analysis to what structurally distinguishes Radev from Orbán: a two-thirds majority. This comparison highlights concerns about Radev's potential to emulate the disruptive tactics seen in Hungary under Viktor Orbán.
He noted, however, that Radev's voter base appears divided and that he has not been given a free hand to lean toward Moscow.
Structural limitations may prevent Radev from implementing Orbán-style blocking policies. Radev could possibly reach a two-thirds majority for individual issues – the newspaper mentions reforms of the judiciary and the prosecution service – with support from other parties. For a Moscow-oriented blockade policy of Orbán's model, there is no such support in the new parliament, assesses FAZ. Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director at the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), points to a structural limitation that makes an Orbán scenario unlikely, noting that after Orbán's election loss in Hungary, Radev lacks an ally at the European Council table to coordinate a blocking policy with.
Goran Georgiev, an expert on Russian disinformation at the Center for Democratic Studies in Sofia, sees more far-reaching risks. According to Europaportalen, Goran Georgiev described that if Radev's previous statements are indicative, Bulgaria could end up in a parliament where the majority is not pro-European for the first time in its modern history. However, according to Europaportalen, Goran Georgiev also described that Radev's voter base appears divided and that he has not been given a free hand to lean toward Moscow, suggesting potential constraints on his pro-Russian leanings.
Parliamentary and presidential elections are to be held in Bulgaria on November 14, according to major media reports. This upcoming presidential election adds another layer to the continued political uncertainty facing the nation. The specific policies Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria will implement regarding EU relations and military aid to Ukraine remain unknown, as does how his government will address corruption and oligarchic influence.
The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was re-elected on December 1, 2024. She sits together with 12 women and 14 men in the new college. The Commission is elected by the EU Parliament for five years and leads the daily work of the EU, providing context for Bulgaria's future interactions with European institutions. The impact of Radev's Eurosceptic and pro-Russian leanings on Bulgaria's role within the European Union is yet to be determined, and how other Bulgarian political parties will respond to his victory also remains unclear.
Official final results are expected later on Monday. The remaining unknowns about Radev's specific policies and how Progressive Bulgaria will use a potential absolute majority contribute to the uncertainty surrounding Bulgaria's political future. Whether the party will secure an absolute majority and how they might address corruption and oligarchic influence are key questions that will shape the coming months.