Former president Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria coalition won a landslide victory in Bulgaria's parliamentary election, with preliminary results suggesting it could secure an absolute majority for the first time in nearly three decades. 7 percent, far exceeding opinion polls that had placed it at 31 percent. The conservative ruling party GERB received 16 percent according to the exit poll, while the centrist coalition PP-DB received 14 percent.
With these preliminary figures, Progressive Bulgaria is heading toward 129–130 of parliament's 240 seats—a potential absolute majority that would allow it to govern alone for the first time in nearly thirty years. Official final results are expected later on Monday. Voter turnout increased sharply to a preliminary 47–48 percent, compared to 39 percent in the last election in October 2024.
The election results marked major losses for Bulgaria's traditional political forces. Boyko Borisov's GERB—long the country's dominant political force—received just over 13 percent of the vote based on preliminary results. Meanwhile, the Bulgarian Socialist Party fell below the four percent threshold for the first time in the party's history.
If Radev's previous statements are indicative, we could end up in a parliament where the majority is not pro-European for the first time in Bulgaria's modern history.
4 percent. This parliamentary election is the eighth in Bulgaria in five years. No parties have managed to form a government after the two previous elections.
A caretaker government has ruled the country since May. During the election campaign, Rumen Radev focused on criticizing corruption and the powerful oligarchs who have long influenced Bulgarian politics, according to Reuters. On foreign policy, Rumen Radev opposed military aid to Ukraine and argued for removing import barriers for Russian oil and gas, according to Reuters.
Rumen Radev is described as a Eurosceptic by Reuters. According to risk analyst Mario Bikarski speaking to AP, Radev's program is sufficiently vague for the coalition to be able to cooperate with almost all other parties in the newly elected parliament. EU parliamentarians warn of a new pro-Russian voice in the union emerging from Bulgaria's election results, according to major media reports.
He noted, however, that Radev's voter base appears split and that he has not been given a free pass to lean toward Moscow.
Analysts are more cautious about drawing direct comparisons between Radev and other Eurosceptic leaders, according to major media reports. An anonymous EU diplomat told Politico that Radev is in a 'completely different league' than Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán regarding the ability—and willingness—to disrupt the union's work from within. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung points in an analysis to what structurally distinguishes Radev from Orbán: a two-thirds majority, according to major media reports.
Goran Georgiev, an expert on Russian disinformation at the Center for Democratic Studies in Sofia, sees more far-reaching risks from the election outcome, according to major media reports. According to Europaportalen, Goran Georgiev described that if Radev's previous statements are indicative, Bulgaria could end up in a parliament where the majority is not pro-European for the first time in its modern history. However, according to Europaportalen, Goran Georgiev also described that Radev's voter base appears split and that he has not been given a free pass to lean toward Moscow.
Vessela Tcherneva, deputy director at the think tank European Council of Foreign Affairs (ECFR), points to a structural limitation that makes an Orbán scenario unlikely in Bulgaria, according to major media reports. The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, was re-elected on December 1, 2024, according to major media reports. She sits together with 12 women and 14 men in the new college.
The Commission is elected by the EU Parliament for five years and leads the daily work of the EU. Several key unknowns remain about how Bulgaria's political landscape will evolve following this election. What specific policies Rumen Radev's Progressive Bulgaria will implement regarding EU relations and military aid to Ukraine remains unclear.
Whether the coalition will secure an absolute majority in parliament once final results are confirmed is also unknown. How other Bulgarian political parties will respond and whether they will cooperate with or oppose Progressive Bulgaria in the new parliament will significantly influence governance outcomes. The exact impact of Radev's Eurosceptic and pro-Russian leanings on Bulgaria's role within the European Union will become clearer as the new government takes shape.