Polymarket users bet more than $4 million on U.S.-Iran strikes occurring on February 28, according to multiple reports. Bets related to the current war in Iran totaled $529 million on the platform, multiple reports indicate. Newly established accounts on Polymarket placed highly precise, timely wagers concerning a potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, leading to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits, according to multiple reports. Polymarket pulled a bet on the fates of U.S. pilots shot down in Iran after backlash led by Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, multiple reports show. The company stated it removed the bet immediately as it did not meet their integrity standards and is investigating how it was posted. Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton said on social media that there is an ongoing search and rescue operation for a missing American service member whose plane was shot down over Iran, and people betting on their safety is disgusting, according to multiple reports. Polymarket responded in an official statement that it took the market down immediately as it does not meet their integrity standards and is investigating how it slipped through internal safeguards, multiple reports show. Moulton added on social media that taking down this particular bet after he called it out can only be the first step, with 219 war bets still active on the platform, according to multiple reports. It remains unclear how the bet on the pilots slipped through Polymarket's internal safeguards, as the company is investigating this.
Polymarket was banned for American users from 2022–25 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for non-compliance with gambling legislation, multiple reports indicate. The 2025 Trump administration overturned the ban on Polymarket, according to multiple reports. Donald Trump Jr. is a major investor in Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi, multiple reports show. Moulton noted on social media that Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in this dystopian death market, according to multiple reports.
We've seen very large bets going on minutes before a major announcement comes up. The speculation is that someone on the inside has loaded up their crypto account to make some quick money on a bet.
Energy traders say online betting platforms like Polymarket are directly driving the global oil market, according to The Guardian. Goldman Sachs includes analysis of prediction-market data in its oil market research, The Guardian reports. The Intercontinental Exchange launched a trading tool providing a data feed of Polymarket's prediction markets, The Guardian states. Polymarket has become the best predictor of the oil market's direction since the U.S.-Israel war with Iran triggered a global oil crisis, according to one energy trader cited by The Guardian. According to The Guardian, one energy trader described seeing very large bets going on minutes before a major announcement comes up, with speculation that someone on the inside has loaded up their crypto account to make quick money. According to The Guardian, Ajay Parmar described betting markets having a long history of strong prediction accuracy and traders increasingly turning to Polymarket for market indicators. Tim Skirrow told The Guardian he can believe it, noting any and all data is up for consideration in modern markets if it has alpha.
Democrats Sen. Chris Murphy and Congressman Greg Casar introduced legislation to ban predictions and betting on war, terrorism, assassinations, and government actions, The Guardian reports. The outcome of the proposed legislation is uncertain as it was recently introduced. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, meaning a single user can create multiple accounts, according to multiple reports. There are concerns that anonymous account holders on Polymarket may be using insider knowledge to place bets, according to energy traders cited by The Guardian. It is unknown who controls the newly created accounts on Polymarket that placed timely bets on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, as blockchain data cannot identify them. The extent of insider knowledge being used on Polymarket is unclear, given concerns about anonymous bets placed before major announcements.
We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.
Polymarket is a global cryptocurrency-based prediction market headquartered in New York. It was launched in 2020. Polymarket does not charge trading fees, except on its 15-minute crypto markets, multiple reports indicate. Polymarket's business model relies on the sale of data generated on the platform, according to multiple reports. Whether Polymarket sells the data it collects from users is not publicly revealed.