The Personal Assets Trust aims to protect shareholders from falling stock markets while providing long-term positive returns, according to Daily Mail - Money. Troy Asset Management has managed the trust since March 2009, achieving average annual returns of 7 percent under its stewardship, the publication reported. The trust provides a relatively smooth journey for shareholders compared to market volatility, with its share price dropping less than the market during downturns, though returns are inferior when equities perform strongly, according to Daily Mail - Money. For example, in 2020, Personal Assets' share price dropped by 11.9 percent during the Covid lockdown, compared to a 35.3 percent correction in the FTSE All-Share Index, Daily Mail - Money reported.
In recent weeks, Personal Assets showed resilience as stock markets wobbled due to the Middle East conflict and Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Daily Mail - Money. Last month, Personal Assets' shares fell by 4 percent compared to a 6.7 percent drop in the FTSE All-Share Index, the publication reported. So far this month, Personal Assets' shares are up 2 percent, bringing the price back to where it was at the start of the year, according to Daily Mail - Money.
The trust, valued at £1.7 billion according to Daily Mail - Money, holds 10 percent of its assets in gold. The rest of its portfolio is invested in equities, short-dated UK gilts, Japanese bonds, and inflation-linked government bonds from the US and UK, Daily Mail - Money reported. Personal Assets trimmed its gold holdings by a third earlier this year. Equities account for a third of Personal Assets' assets, spread across 18 holdings, with defensiveness being the order of the day for these equity holdings, according to Daily Mail - Money. Alphabet is Personal Assets' third largest equity position, and if the trust had not chipped away at the Alphabet holding, it would account for 6 percent of the portfolio, Daily Mail - Money reported.
This market volatility comes amid an escalating conflict that has upended global financial and energy markets, raising concerns of a global economic crisis or recession, according to research from six sources. Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, oil depots, and other infrastructure across the Gulf region.
Iranian attacks on several vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced traffic in the channel, through which about 20% of global oil and gas supplies transit, according to research from six sources. Iran also attacked fuel tankers in Iraqi waters on Thursday. About 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounted for nearly 70% of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with about 15% bound for the rest of Asia, the agency reported.
Energy prices have surged as a result. As of Monday morning, Brent crude was priced at $106 per barrel, up more than 40% from $72 per barrel on February 27, according to research from six sources. LNG prices have risen by almost 60% since the start of the war, according to research from six sources, including Muyu Xu at Kpler. On March 2, QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, straining the global LNG market. Prices of refined products like petrol, gas oil, jet kerosene, and fuel oil have seen significant increases and are expected to continue rising if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain largely shut, according to research from six sources.
Conflicting reports exist about current oil price levels. While Brent crude was at $106 per barrel on Monday morning, the price of oil was below $100 per barrel at 4:47 p.m. Saudi time on Friday, though it remains about 37% higher than when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran almost two weeks ago, according to research from six sources. Brent crude oil futures fell 1.69% to $98.76 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude was at $93.45 a barrel, with both having hovered around $60 at the start of 2026.
Analysts present different scenarios for oil prices depending on the conflict's duration. If the conflict is short-lived and Iranian attacks cease, oil and LNG prices would fall sharply, with Brent crude reaching $65 per barrel by year-end, according to research from six sources, including Neil Shearing at Capital Economics. In case of a longer war, oil prices would rise further during the conflict to around $130 per barrel in Q2, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would be affected, according to research from six sources. Assuming the conflict does not intensify, the annual average price of Brent crude is expected to fall to a four-year low of $73 in 2025, down from $80 a barrel this year, according to research from six sources. If the conflict escalates and reduces global oil supply by 2% (2 million barrels per day) by year-end, it could impact prices.
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook projects that global commodity prices are set to tumble to a five-year low in 2025 amid an oil glut that is likely to limit price effects even of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Overall commodity prices will remain 30% higher than in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to research from six sources. Next year, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day, a glut exceeded only during the 2020 pandemic shutdowns and the 1998 oil-price collapse. The oil glut partly reflects a major shift in China, where oil demand has essentially flatlined since 2023 amid an industrial slowdown and increased sales of electric vehicles and LNG-powered trucks. Several non-OPEC+ countries are expected to ramp up oil production, and OPEC+ maintains significant spare capacity of 7 million barrels per day, almost double the amount in 2019. From 2024 through 2026, global commodity prices are projected to plummet by nearly 10%. Global food prices are set to fall 9% this year and an additional 4% in 2025 before leveling off, leaving them nearly 25% above the 2015-2019 average. Energy prices are expected to drop by 6% in 2025 and an additional 2% in 2026.
Falling food and energy prices should make it easier for central banks to control inflation, but an escalation in armed conflicts could complicate this by disrupting energy supply and driving up prices, according to research from six sources. High prices, conflict, extreme weather, and other shocks have made more than 725 million people food insecure in 2024, according to research from six sources, including Indermit Gill at the World Bank. The spectre of rising inflation has led markets to rapidly reprice expectations from central banks, with traders now anticipating just 20 basis points of easing from the Federal Reserve compared to 50 bps priced in last month.
Global markets have experienced significant movements amid the uncertainty. Stocks rose on Friday after recent heavy selling, helped by lower oil prices, but uncertainty over the Iran war continues to disrupt energy supplies, driving concerns over fuel inflation and interest rates. US futures pointed to gains with S&P 500 e-minis rising 0.4%, following steep declines on Thursday that saw the S&P 500 close 1.5% lower. Europe's STOXX 600 reversed course after falling during morning trading and was last 0.3% higher, but remains on track for a 5.4% fall in March so far—its biggest two-week decline in a year. The dollar has become the safe-haven of choice during the tumult, putting most other currencies under pressure, and is up 2.5% since the war began at the end of February.
With Iran stepping up attacks across the Middle East as its new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane closed, investors are bracing for a prolonged conflict and higher oil prices.
Personal Assets Trust Public Limited Company is registered in Scotland under company number SC074582, with its website at www.patplc.co.uk. Troy Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority of the United Kingdom with firm reference number 195764 and is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an Investment Adviser (CRD: 319174).