The policy options are detailed in a note expressing frustration at some allies' reluctance or refusal to grant the US access, basing and overflight rights for the Iran war, the official said. The email stated that ABO is 'just the absolute baseline for NATO', according to the official. The options were circulating at high levels in the Pentagon, the official added. One option in the email envisions suspending 'difficult' countries from important or prestigious positions at NATO, the official said. The document is neither an official memo nor an executive order, but its contents carry weight as it circulates among senior commanders, according to a US official. Pentagon Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson did not deny the existence of the email.
Spain is explicitly mentioned in the email, after the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez was among the first to make clear it would not allow the use of its military facilities for offensive operations against Iran, according to a US official. Defence Minister Margarita Robles and Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares confirmed this publicly in early March, the official said. Madrid later closed its airspace to all US aircraft involved in the war, according to a US official. Trump called Spain 'a terrible ally' and threatened to cut off trade relations, according to a US official. The European Commission came to Spain's defence, saying it would protect EU trade interests, the official said.
Trump has criticised NATO allies for not sending their navies to help open the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed to global shipping following the start of the Iran war on 28 February, according to a US official. Trump has said he is considering withdrawing from the alliance, the official said. However, the email does not suggest that the US withdraw from NATO, the US official said. The email also does not propose closing bases in Europe, the official added.
ABO is 'just the absolute baseline for NATO'.
The war in the Middle East has caused serious disruption to the economies of directly affected countries, including damage to infrastructure and industries, according to research from five sources. Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs, the research said. About 25 to 30 percent of global oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the research. Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity due to higher food and fertilizer prices, the research said. The war could shape the global economy in different ways, all leading to higher prices and slower growth, according to the research. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure have produced the largest disruption to the global oil market in its history, according to the International Energy Agency. The US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes have upended global financial and energy markets, raising concerns of a global economic crisis and recession, according to the research. Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, oil depots, and other infrastructure across the Gulf region, the research said. Iranian attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced traffic in the channel, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies transit, according to the research. Brent crude was priced at $106 per barrel as of Monday morning, up more than 40 percent from $72 per barrel on February 27, the research said. LNG prices have risen by almost 60 percent since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. On March 2, QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack, according to the research. About 84 percent of the crude oil and 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 was bound for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for nearly 70 percent of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the EIA said. If the conflict is short-lived, oil and LNG prices would fall back sharply with Brent crude reaching $65 per barrel by year-end, according to Neil Shearing and team at Capital Economics. In case of a longer war, oil prices could rise to around $130 per barrel in Q2, according to a Capital Economics report.
The coordinated attacks on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, represent a profound shock to Iran’s political system, according to research from five sources. A third round of nuclear talks in Geneva had just concluded with the Omani mediator reporting 'significant progress', the research said. Tehran fired back within four hours, hitting Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, according to the research. President Trump said the war could last up to four or five weeks, according to a public speech.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March 2026 caused Brent Crude to surge past $120 per barrel, according to research from five sources. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all exports after the closure, the research said. Oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively dropped by 6.7 million barrels per day by 10 March, and by at least 10 million barrels per day as of 12 March, according to the research. The maritime blockade triggered a 'grocery supply emergency' across Gulf Cooperation Council states, with 70% of food imports disrupted and consumer prices spiking 40–120%, the research said. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threatened drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar, according to the research. Regional aviation faced near-total cessation due to airspace closures, the research said.