The election unfolded amid high stakes and an uncertain pre-election landscape. Voter turnout was high, with early figures pointing to participation near 75%, a potential record. Ahead of the election, opinion polls showed Tisza leading Fidesz by 7–9 percentage points. The outcome was uncertain due to undecided voters, redrawn electoral maps favoring Fidesz, and a high share of Hungarians in neighboring countries who mostly support the ruling party.
Parliamentary composition and seat projections reveal a fragmented legislature. Viktor Orbán's Fidesz could retain 55 seats. The far-right Our Homeland Movement is on course to enter Parliament as a third party with six seats. To fulfill its biggest election promises to abolish Orbán's policies, Tisza needs a two-thirds majority (133 seats) in the 199-seat parliament.
Orbán is clear that his party Fidesz is heading for victory and another term in power.
The election result carries immediate implications for EU funds and Ukraine aid. A defeat for Orbán could mean the release of a €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine that the Hungarian leader has blocked. The EU has withheld roughly €19 billion in funding due to concerns over the rule of law and corruption.
Orbán's illiberal system, characterized by media control and democratic erosion, defined his long tenure. Viktor Orbán controls an estimated 80% of the media in Hungary. Hungary fell to place 68 in Reporters Without Borders' press freedom index 2025, and the organization describes Orbán as 'press freedom's enemy'. Under Orbán, Hungary has become a paradigmatic example of a very modern kind of autocracy that political scientists call 'competitive authoritarianism'. Hungarian elections are decidedly unfair, since they are structured to give the incumbent government so many advantages that the opposition should be almost incapable of winning.
A strong state, no longer bound to obsess over personal freedoms, was Hungary's future, calling it an 'illiberal democracy'.
Foreign interference accusations and international ties marked the campaign. Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar traded accusations of enlisting foreign interference in the election. US Vice President JD Vance campaigned on Orbán's behalf this week. Orbán has close ties to Vladimir Putin and has become known for blocking the EU's aid package to Ukraine and hindering sanctions against Russia. Orbán also has a good relationship with several European right-wing nationalist leaders and the Trump administration.
The new leader, Péter Magyar, brings a distinct background to the premiership. Péter Magyar was born in Budapest 45 years ago, is a trained lawyer, and became involved early in Fidesz when it was still an opposition party. Péter Magyar broke with Fidesz after it was revealed that Hungary's president and his wife, who was justice minister, participated in pardoning a deputy director of an orphanage who had been sentenced for helping to cover up a pedophilia scandal.
Orbán would be 'removed by the same people ... he has abandoned and betrayed: millions of Hungarians'.
Constitutional uncertainties and potential power retention maneuvers loom in the transition period. After the election, Hungary's parliament, which currently has a two-thirds majority for Fidesz, can remain seated for up to a month. Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok currently has a speaker-like function, with a background as a judge but no political experience. This could give Orbán a window to retain power even in the event of a loss, according to Anders Blomqvist, a Hungary expert and university lecturer in history at Dalarna University. One scenario is that the current president resigns, parliament is convened, the constitution is amended, and Orbán is appointed president. If Fidesz loses, they could modify the presidential role and give the president greater influence.
Expert analysis suggests Orbán may have a 'Plan B' and that democratic backlash is possible. According to measurements, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán must fight for his political survival. Anders Blomqvist is convinced that Orbán is considering a plan B in the event of an election loss and would not be surprised if there is some backlash for democracy after the election.
The country will once again be a strong European and NATO ally and vowed to restore its place in Europe.
Orbán's inflammatory post-election rhetoric has added tension to the political climate. Orbán alleged on social media that Magyar and his Tisza party were colluding with foreign intelligence and threatening the ruling party's supporters with violence.
The geopolitical significance of Hungary's political shift is substantial. Hungary has become a geopolitical hotspot where the interests of great powers converge in Europe.
My first foreign trips will be to Warsaw and Vienna, after which I will visit Brussels to persuade the EU to unlock billions of euros in frozen funds.
Several unknowns persist regarding constitutional maneuvers and Orbán's next moves. What specific constitutional or legal maneuvers, if any, will Viktor Orbán or Fidesz attempt to retain influence or power after losing the election remains unclear. The extent to which Péter Magyar will be able to roll back Orbán's illiberal policies, given the potential need for a two-thirds majority in parliament, is also uncertain.
Further unknowns concern EU funds release and foreign policy realignment. How quickly the EU will release the frozen funds to Hungary under Péter Magyar's new government, and what conditions will be attached, has not been determined. What will be the immediate impact on Hungary's foreign policy, particularly regarding relations with Russia, the EU, and the United States, is yet to be seen.
I promise to join the European Public Prosecutor's Office.
Additional uncertainties involve policy rollback challenges and far-right influence. What role the far-right Our Homeland Movement will play in the new parliament, and how it will influence government decisions, is not yet known.
I call on Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok to resign immediately after asking him to form a government.
Orbán congratulated me on the phone on our victory, with 45.7% of the count predicting Tisza to win 135 mandates in the 199-seat parliament.
The result was 'painful' and vowed to serve the Hungarian nation from opposition as well.
The election was about protecting what Hungary had built over the past decade and a half.
The vote is a choice between remaining aligned with the EU or continuing as a political outlier.