One Nation achieved its first electoral breakthrough outside Queensland by winning the second highest number of votes, more than 20%, in the South Australian state election on March 21. The party will get at least three candidates elected, mostly at the expense of the Liberal Party, and is on track to claim up to four lower-house seats after finishing second in total primary votes with 22%. The Liberals are projected to win just five lower-house seats, and former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has secured an Upper House seat for One Nation. According to Daily Mail - News, Paul Smith described One Nation's surge to 22 per cent as placing them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas.
Incumbent Labor Premier Peter Malinauskas won a resounding victory in the South Australian state election, increasing his majority. Labor has cruised to re-election in South Australia, winning at least 32 of the 47 lower-house spots. In a final opinion poll released on Friday, YouGov forecast a 59-41 win for Labor on a two-party preferred basis against both the Liberals and One Nation. According to Paul Smith of YouGov, Labor was set to secure its largest two-party preferred vote in SA history, while the Liberals were on track for 19%, their worst result in any state or federal election since the coalition was formed. According to Daily Mail - News, Peter Malinauskas described the outcome as having a lot to unpack with how the voting played out, noting that in a world of serious volatility, we see that play itself out at the ballot box locally.
It's a 'very ominous sign' for Australia's two major political parties.
National polling trends show One Nation's surge to 29-30% support, with significant gains among young voters and former Coalition supporters. A Redbridge/Accent Research poll found the Coalition on a primary vote of 17%, One Nation at 29%, and Labor at 32%. One Nation's primary vote in Queensland has jumped to 30%, compared to 27% for Labor and 23% for the Liberal National Party. One Nation has more than doubled its support from voters aged 18-34 from 8% to 19% since December 2025. For the first time in Newspoll history, 35% of voters who backed the Coalition in the 2025 federal election have switched support to One Nation. According to BBC News, Kos Samaras described this shift as a very ominous sign for Australia's two major political parties.
One Nation's expanding demographic appeal includes increased female support and potential to win 20 federal seats. One Nation now has more female supporters than men. On such a result, One Nation could win 20 parliamentary seats at the next federal election. According to Daily Mail - News, Pauline Hanson described the movement as an undercurrent of people saying they've had a gutful and want their country back. However, it remains unclear what specific policies or strategies One Nation is implementing to attract young voters and women, or to what extent cost-of-living issues versus immigration policies are driving its support.
One Nation is now the Opposition. The numbers say so.
The Coalition's dramatic decline in support spans multiple states, with federal dissatisfaction with leadership. A DemosAU poll shows the Coalition sinking to 23% in the lower house in NSW, a seven-point slump since October. The Coalition's support is dramatically down from where Peter Dutton was at last year's disastrous election. Liberal leader Ashton Hurn took over the role just 103 days before the South Australian election. According to Daily Mail - News, Kos Samaras described One Nation as now being the Opposition, stating the numbers say so. How the Liberal Party will respond strategically to One Nation's surge, given this catch-22 situation, is a key unknown.
Voter dissatisfaction with government performance on cost-of-living issues and Prime Minister Albanese's leadership is widespread. One Nation's surge in South Australia is driven by voters frustrated with issues like cost of living, according to major media reports. Dissatisfaction with Albanese's performance as prime minister had increased across all age groups, genders, states, education backgrounds, wage classes, homeowners and renters. The poll shows 70% of voters believe the Minns government is performing poorly on cost-of-living pressures. How Labor's government will address this dissatisfaction and maintain its lead is uncertain.
Obviously has a lot to unpack with how the voting played out. I think one of those things is that in a world of serious volatility, we see that play itself out at the ballot box locally.
Election context includes early voting trends and One Nation's strategic positioning. One Nation leader Cory Bernardi was among the record 454,862 (34.5%) South Australians who cast their ballots at early voting centers. According to Daily Mail - News, Peter Malinauskas described voting with four kids as bringing its own challenges, and he told his family, Team Mali, dad's got to go and do some work. According to Daily Mail - News, Clem Macintyre described One Nation as needing to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative if they make a breakthrough.
Key unknowns persist about One Nation's policy appeal, Liberal response strategies, and long-term impact on Australia's political system. Beyond the immediate electoral results, it is unclear what long-term impact One Nation's breakthrough will have on the traditional two-party system in Australian federal politics. The specific mechanisms behind its appeal to new demographics and the Coalition's next moves remain subjects of intense speculation as the political landscape undergoes a significant realignment.
It's the first time I've voted with four kids, which brings its own challenges.
Team Mali, dad's got to go and do some work.
One Nation's surge to 22 per cent places them second in the state for the first time, with particularly strong support in regional areas.
If they do make a breakthrough, they're going to have to work hard to be a more serious and viable alternative.
There's a movement, there's an undercurrent and it's people saying we've had a gutful. We want our country back.