One Nation's historic performance in South Australia marks a turning point in Australian politics. According to multiple media reports, the party won more than 20% of the primary vote, finishing second behind Labor, and is on track to claim up to four lower-house seats. Former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi has secured an Upper House seat for One Nation, further consolidating the party's presence. Kos Samaras, former Labor strategist and co-director of polling firm Redbridge, described the result as a 'very ominous sign' for Australia's two major political parties. 'One Nation is now the Opposition. The numbers say so,' he said at a press conference. One Nation leader Pauline Hanson declared: 'There's a movement, there's an undercurrent and it's people saying we've had a gutful. We want our country back.'
Labor, meanwhile, secured a resounding victory in South Australia. Incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas increased his majority, with Labor winning at least 32 of the 47 lower-house seats, according to multiple media reports. A YouGov poll forecast a 59-41 win for Labor on a two-party preferred basis. YouGov's Paul Smith said Labor was set to secure its largest two-party preferred vote in SA history. In contrast, the Liberals are projected to win just five lower-house seats, a catastrophic collapse for the party that once dominated the state. The result underscores the extent of the Coalition's decline, which is now being replicated nationally.
It's a 'very ominous sign' for Australia's two major political parties.
National polling reveals a dramatic shift in voter sentiment. A Redbridge/Accent Research poll found the Coalition on a primary vote of just 17%, with One Nation at 29% and Labor at 32%. Newspoll quarterly analysis found One Nation's primary vote in Queensland has jumped to 30%, and the party is now beating the Coalition in the primary vote in every major state except Victoria. Support for One Nation almost doubled in NSW to 27% and reached 21% in Victoria, according to Newspoll. The Coalition's primary vote in NSW has sunk to 23% in the lower house, a seven-point slump since October, according to a DemosAU poll. These figures represent a seismic shift in the Australian political landscape, with One Nation emerging as a major force.
Demographic changes are fuelling One Nation's rise. Newspoll found the party has more than doubled its support from voters aged 18-34, from 8% to 19% since December 2025. It now has more female supporters than men, a notable reversal of traditional gender voting patterns. Jim Reed, founder of Resolve, explained the motivations behind the shift: 'One Nation voters are fed up with Labor and don't like Jacinta Allan but think the Liberal Party is not in a position to win or govern either. For some people, backing One Nation is a tactical choice to vote out Labor. For others, it is a Trumpian 'drain the swamp' mentality that seeks to get rid of both major parties. Either way, people are voting for change.'
One Nation is now the Opposition. The numbers say so.
The Coalition is haemorrhaging support to One Nation. Newspoll found that 35% of voters who backed the Coalition in the 2025 federal election have switched support to One Nation. This exodus is particularly pronounced in NSW and Queensland, where One Nation now leads the Coalition in primary vote share. In Victoria, the Liberal Party is considering a controversial strategy: according to two inside sources, the Victorian Liberals are planning to preference One Nation ahead of Labor at the state's next election. Former Labor premier Steve Bracks condemned the move, saying: 'All that will do is legitimise One Nation and that is outrageous. It will be the beginning of the end of the centre-right party in this country.' The decision has not yet been officially adopted, and it remains unclear whether the party will follow through.
The exact final number of lower-house seats One Nation will win in South Australia remains uncertain, with projections ranging from three to four. It is also unclear whether the Victorian Liberals will formally adopt a policy of preferencing One Nation ahead of Labor. The Coalition's response to One Nation's surge in national polls is yet to be determined, and the specific policies driving young Australians and women to support One Nation are not fully understood. Can One Nation maintain its momentum through the next federal election? That question hangs over Australian politics as the major parties grapple with a rapidly shifting electorate.
There's a movement, there's an undercurrent and it's people saying we've had a gutful. We want our country back.
All that will do is legitimise One Nation and that is outrageous. It will be the beginning of the end of the centre-right party in this country.
One Nation voters are fed up with Labor and don't like Jacinta Allan but think the Liberal Party is not in a position to win or govern either. For some people, backing One Nation is a tactical choice to vote out Labor. For others, it is a Trumpian 'drain the swamp' mentality that seeks to get rid of both major parties. Either way, people are voting for change.