9 million tons of oil pass through the Öresund and the Great Belt every day. The amount of oil passing through Denmark and the Öresund coast has increased by 58 percent between 2021 and 2025, according to Danish analysis. The Danish shipping industry association Danske Rederier has analyzed oil tanker traffic through the Great Belt and Öresund and calls the increase explosive.
The Swedish Coast Guard has no own calculations of how much oil transports have increased, but confirms they see the same trend. Oil tankers have changed patterns since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, departing primarily from oil ports in the Gulf of Finland and passing through the Great Belt on the way out. Since we no longer trade with Russian oil, we need to import oil from elsewhere, which means more oil is also coming into the Baltic Sea than before.
Ships from the Russian shadow fleet, often in quite poor condition, often pass through Öresund and the Scanian south coast on their way back to Russia and are then emptied of oil. Because Öresund is a much shallower passage than the Great Belt, ships with a larger draft must go through the Great Belt and the Danish fairways. With the increased amount of oil transports in the Baltic Sea, the risks of accidents with oil spills as a consequence also increase.
The exact percentage increase in oil transports that the Swedish Coast Guard has observed remains unclear, as they have no own calculations. Specific safety and environmental incidents due to the increased oil transport and shadow fleet activity have not been detailed. Regulatory measures to mitigate risks in the Baltic Sea are unspecified.