Gross, an American theoretical physicist and string theorist who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2004, recently received the $3 million Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics. According to Daily Express - World, Gross described the chances of living 50 more years as very small due to nuclear war dangers, estimating humanity's expected lifetime at about 35 years. He further noted that while post-Cold War estimates suggested a 1% annual chance of nuclear war, he believes the current likelihood has increased to approximately 2% per year, which translates to a 1-in-50 chance annually.
Gross warns that managing three nuclear superpowers is infinitely more complicated than dealing with two, though he did not specify which nations he was referring to. He also notes that international norms are breaking down while weapons systems are becoming increasingly advanced, creating a more volatile global security environment.
Currently, I spend part of my time trying to tell people … that the chances of you living 50 [more] years are very small. Due to the danger of nuclear war, you have about 35 years.
The physicist emphasizes the importance of international dialogue to reduce the risk of nuclear war, though he has not detailed specific policy proposals or quantified how artificial intelligence specifically contributes to nuclear risks. Gross's prediction does not account for potential technological or diplomatic breakthroughs that could mitigate these dangers, and the evidence supporting his 2% annual risk estimate remains unclear.
Even after the Cold War ended, (when) we had strategic arms control treaties, all of which have disappeared, there were estimates there was a 1 per cent chance of nuclear war (each year). Things have gotten so much worse in the last 30 years, as you can see every time you read the newspaper. I feel it's not a rigorous estimate, that the chances are more likely 2 per cent. So that's a 1-in-50 chance every year. The expected lifetime, in the case of 2 per cent (per year), is about 35 years.