The U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026, according to research from multiple sources. Coordinated attacks targeted Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, research indicates. Iran retaliated within four hours, hitting Israel, U.S. bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, according to research from multiple sources.
Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced traffic in the channel, research shows. The Strait of Hormuz closure occurred on March 4, 2026, according to research, and about 20% of global oil and gas supplies transit through the strait. The 2026 Iran war has led to what the International Energy Agency characterized as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, research indicates.
The 'bigger issue' is that Goldman's results 'feel like a snapshot of a world that may already be fading.'
Brent crude oil prices rose to $106 per barrel as of Monday morning after the war began, up from $72 per barrel on February 27, according to research. Liquified natural gas prices have risen almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack on March 2, 2026, research shows, and Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel after the Strait of Hormuz closure, according to research.
Oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE collectively dropped by at least 10 million barrels per day as of March 12, 2026, research indicates. Seventy percent of the Gulf region's food imports were disrupted by mid-March 2026, causing a 40-120% spike in consumer prices, according to research. The war has precipitated a second major shift in the region's long-term economic narrative, described as the end of the Gulf as a permanently safe destination for expatriates, immigrants, and tourists, according to the Qatar-funded Middle East Council on Global Affairs.
With oil prices surging, inflation fears building and recession risks creeping back in, the outlook for dealmaking and capital markets activity becomes far less certain.
Wall Street's top banks achieved record revenues in the first quarter of 2026, according to major media reports. JP Morgan reported net income of $16.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 13% from a year ago. Goldman Sachs reported net income of $5.6 billion in Q1 2026, an uplift of nearly a fifth, according to major media, and total net income for JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America was just above $42 billion in Q1 2026, major media reports indicate.
At Morgan Stanley, equity revenue jumped by a quarter to $5.2 billion, according to major media. Citigroup's equity revenue shot up 40% to $2.1 billion, driven by derivatives and prime services, the bank said. Much of the banks' revenue was derived from growth in equities trading divisions and investment banking, energized by market volatility triggered by the war in the Middle East, major media reports indicate.
There is an increasingly complex set of risks – such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.
Goldman Sachs's fixed income division revenue fell 10% to just over $4 billion after a slowdown in interest rate trading, mortgages, and credit products, according to major media. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley are set to report a combined $40 billion trading haul for Q1 2026, the highest since at least 2014, according to analyst estimates.
London's FTSE 100 surrendered the 10,000 mark in the weeks that followed the outbreak of war at the end of February, falling by around eight percent, according to major media. Investment banking activity ramped up throughout the quarter, which was trailed by top bosses, major media reports indicate.
The firm remained 'watchful of evolving risks,' though did add there was 'healthy client activity' and a 'resilient' economy.
Industry chiefs struck a note of caution after bumper profits were driven by market volatility, according to major media. Banks could see revenue slow in the near future because companies might hold off on mergers and acquisitions or IPOs due to the war, according to Stephen Biggar, bank analyst and director of financial services research with Argus Research. JP Morgan's chief Jamie Dimon said there is an increasingly complex set of risks such as geopolitical tensions and wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. Bank of America's chief Brian Moynihan said the firm remained watchful of evolving risks, though did add there was healthy client activity and a resilient economy. Citigroup's CEO Jane Fraser said corporate activity was very strong.
Global commodity prices are set to fall through 2026 amid an historic oil glut, according to the World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, research indicates, and OPEC+ maintains significant spare capacity of 7 million barrels per day, according to research. However, the war has caused significant oil price spikes and supply disruptions, with Brent crude rising sharply after the conflict began and the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Corporate activity was 'very strong'.
The exact current Brent crude oil price is unclear, given conflicting reports of $106 and over $120 per barrel. It is also uncertain to what extent the historic oil glut will actually limit oil price spikes from the war, as projections conflict with reported disruptions. The duration of the Strait of Hormuz closure and associated supply disruptions remains unknown, as do the specific geopolitical risks bank chiefs are most concerned about, beyond the general caution expressed.
The war could lead to a global economic crisis or recession, according to research from multiple sources. According to City AM, Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG, described the bigger issue as Goldman's results feeling like a snapshot of a world that may already be fading. According to City AM, Rudolph also described how, with oil prices surging, inflation fears building and recession risks creeping back in, the outlook for dealmaking and capital markets activity becomes far less certain.
This conflict has created a dual impact: generating short-term windfalls for financial institutions through market turbulence while threatening long-term regional stability and global economic health. The interplay between record bank profits and severe energy market disruptions underscores the complex economic ramifications of the ongoing Middle East war.