Major media reports indicate 32,432 Middle East flights have been canceled since Israel and the US started bombing Iran at the end of February, with the number of impacted passengers stretching well into the millions. For long-haul flights between Europe and Asia, only two routes remain available: one over Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, and another through Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Azerbaijan corridor is now 50 miles wide, down from 100 miles before the Iran war, after Azerbaijan closed some of its airspace following drone strikes that Azerbaijani authorities claim were launched from Iranian territory.
This closure of airspace over the southern half of Azerbaijan is putting additional pressure on airlines, with flight traffic severely disrupted and many flights squeezed into a narrow corridor across northern Azerbaijan. Flightradar24 data shows real-time congestion in an approximately 100km wide strip across northern Azerbaijan. The lack of available airspace is driving competition among airlines to secure routes, making flying more expensive and damaging to the environment.
There is now a very tight range of options for airlines.
Flights avoiding Russian airspace due to the Ukraine invasion can add around three hours to a nine-hour trip, burning more fuel and releasing more CO2e. Dubai International Airport is operating far below its standard capacity, partly due to aerial battles overhead, and the UAE government estimated it intercepted 338 ballistic missiles and 15 drones on Friday. Western airlines have had to avoid Russian airspace since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and now all flights are steering clear of Iran and Iraq airspace.
Some airlines had begun adapting routes in recent weeks as tension built in the Gulf, with more flights forced to switch to routes further south this week. Aviation expert John Strickland said, 'There is now a very tight range of options for airlines,' adding that there is likely congestion at busy times of the day for Europe-Asia flights. Most airlines are not currently adding additional stops for longer routes, but Qantas has added a Singapore refuelling stop on its Perth to London flight, and most flights to India will be taking longer and going via routes to the south of the Gulf.
That represented another big complication for airlines' planning.
The daily flight cancellation total is now significantly reduced to 11% a day, according to analytics firm Cirium.