The conflict between the U.S./Israel and Iran began on February 28, 2026, according to research from 10 sources. The attacks resulted in civilian casualties and damage to historical sites, though the exact numbers and specific sites remain unconfirmed. The Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20-25% of seaborne oil, has seen severe disruptions with traffic nearly halted and exports plunging, raising questions about whether this will be temporary or long-term and when normal traffic might resume.
The International Energy Agency described the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption in history, losing 11 million barrels per day. Oil prices surged, with Brent crude rising from around $72 per barrel pre-conflict to over $100 per barrel, such as $103.5 per barrel on March 16, 2026, representing a 42% monthly gain, according to research from 10 sources. Crude oil in India jumped over 40% from ₹5,700 to over ₹9,500 per barrel, multiple reports indicate.
Diesel supply disruptions are estimated at 3-4 million barrels per day, up to 12% of global consumption, raising inflation concerns, research from 10 sources shows. The full extent of economic impacts on global inflation and specific countries beyond those mentioned is not yet clear.
Gold prices initially rose to record highs, such as $5,417.60 per ounce on January 28, 2026, and ₹1,63,060 per 10 grams in India, but have since stabilized or declined modestly during the conflict, trading in a range of $5,000-$5,200 per ounce, according to research from 10 sources. In contrast, according to some media reports, gold prices have fallen around 20% after the outbreak of war in Iran, which contrasts with expectations that geopolitical risk typically drives prices up.
Torbjörn Iwarson, cited in major media, notes that gold prices historically rise with lower real interest rates, not solely due to geopolitical instability. He attributes recent gold price increases over the past one to two years to higher expected inflation in the U.S. due to national debt risks, leading investors to sell dollar assets and buy gold as a hedge against inflation.
No country is immune to the energy crisis.
The war between the U.S./Israel and Iran may have renewed confidence in the dollar at gold's expense, as the dollar is also a safe haven, according to Torbjörn Iwarson in major media. His fund has reallocated from gold to agricultural products, sources said.
Gold often rises first in commodity markets, followed by energy and then agricultural products, Torbjörn Iwarson states in major media. He adds that gold and silver have become expensive relative to other commodities like wheat, which trades at prices covering only half of U.S. farmers' costs.
There is latent selling pressure in the gold sector, with capital managers becoming more cautious and reducing their net long positions significantly, with silver positions down to one-fifth of autumn levels, Torbjörn Iwarson reports in major media.
The conflict caused a loss of over ₹29.5 lakh crore in Indian investor wealth, research from 10 sources indicates. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low of ₹92.47 per U.S. dollar, according to multiple reports.
The European Commission is considering releasing strategic oil reserves to counter price rises, though the likelihood of this happening and its potential effect on prices are unknown. Argentina's Vaca Muerta field benefits from higher oil prices, potentially generating $1.3-1.7 billion in additional annual revenue, research from 10 sources shows.
The conflict is framed as part of a broader shift in global power dynamics, involving U.S.-China rivalry and energy security concerns, according to research from 10 sources. How the conflict might escalate further and its implications for broader geopolitical stability, including U.S.-China relations, remains uncertain. The International Energy Agency warned, 'No country is immune to the energy crisis.'