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Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets and supply chains

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Oil price projections and trendsfactual

Oil prices have soared, with Brent crude at $106 per barrel as of Monday morning, up more than 40% from $72 per barrel on February 27, and could rise further to around $130 per barrel in Q2 in a longer war.

According to www.aljazeera.com
vs.

Assuming the Middle East conflict does not intensify, the annual average price of Brent crude is expected to fall to a four-year low of $73 in 2025, down from $80 a barrel this year, amid an oil glut.

According to www.worldbank.org

Context: This disagreement reflects conflicting views on the market impact: one source emphasizes immediate price spikes and potential for further increases due to the conflict, while another projects a long-term price decline due to structural oversupply, creating uncertainty for consumers and investors about future energy costs.

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