The Watches and Wonders fair is an annual premiere industry gathering in Geneva, showcasing innovations and facilitating deals. According to major media, the show is an elite gathering that hosts about 65 exhibiting brands worldwide, with about 60,000 visitors expected to attend. This event serves as a key barometer for the luxury watch sector, which major media reports is seeking a rebound after two years of market contraction. Swiss watch exports declined for a second consecutive year, with a 1.7% drop in value terms last year, according to major media, though the high-end segment of hand-crafted watches priced above 50,000 francs has been growing. The biggest brands, including Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe, and Omega, hold over half of the total Swiss retail market share in luxury goods, major media indicates.
Research from six sources shows the war in the Middle East is disrupting lives and economies regionally and globally, dimming economic outlooks. The economic shock from the war is global but asymmetric, with energy importers, poorer countries, and those with limited buffers more exposed, according to research. Energy is the main transmission channel for the war's economic impact, with disruptions like the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing significant global oil market disruption, research indicates. A significant portion of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to research from two sources, though there is a contradiction: some sources state about 25 to 30 percent of global oil passes through, while others say about a fifth (20 percent) does, affecting assessments of the blockade's severity.
Official exports figures for March won't be finalized until later this month.
U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran have sent global oil and gas markets spiraling, according to research from six sources. Oil prices hover near $100 per barrel, a significant rise from prewar levels in the low- to mid-$60/bbl range, research shows, and at points have soared to close to $120 a barrel, pushed up by strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz are at a standstill due to Iranian threats to tankers, according to research from two sources. International prices for LNG have jumped more than 50 percent, research indicates.
Multiple U.S.-Iran conflict scenarios carry materially different risks for global oil infrastructure, transit routes, and prices, according to research from six sources. In a scenario involving direct kinetic attacks between the U.S., possibly with Israel, and Iran, including strikes on oil infrastructure, prices would likely experience a significant shock, research shows. Some bank analysts, including Barclays, see oil prices jumping from the mid-$60s per barrel to the $80 per barrel range in the short term in the event of an attack by the U.S. and/or Israel on Iranian military and government leadership, according to research. A symbolic Iranian retaliation targeting U.S. bases but not disrupting critical oil or gas production or blocking transit routes would likely result in a more modest and less sustained price impact of $3–4 per barrel, research indicates.
We are expecting a sharp drop in exports in part because of logistical issues and sagging demand.
Across all scenarios, Gulf Arab states would be exposed as targets of Iranian retaliation following any U.S. and Israeli action against Iran, according to research from six sources. The financial outlook of Gulf Arab states depends on regional stability, which could be tested by an Iranian leadership transition, research shows. Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs, according to research. Economies heavily dependent on oil imports in Africa and Asia are finding it increasingly difficult to access supplies, even at inflated prices, research indicates.
The blockade has led to a global oil shortage, hitting Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard, according to research from six sources. Parts of the Middle East, Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America face higher food and fertilizer prices and tighter financial conditions due to the war, research shows. Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity and may need more external support, which has been declining, according to research. The Philippines has mandated four-day work weeks to save fuel, and Indonesia is seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks, research indicates.
Purchases from residents in the United Arab Emirates appear to be holding up, but tourist traffic that drives sales in places like Dubai airport has taken a hit due to Iranian strikes.
China has long prepared for a Gulf oil supply shock, but the Iran war's disruption of a key global shipping route is now testing its resilience, according to research from six sources. China is the world's largest buyer of oil and is feeling the strain but is in a better position than its neighbors due to years of statecraft preparing for a global energy crisis, research shows. China's north is mainly powered by domestically produced oil and pipeline imports from Russia, which are not disrupted by the war, according to research. Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports, making Moscow its biggest oil supplier despite sanctions, research indicates.
High-end watches have been affected by the war, according to major media. There was a 30% drop in watch orders from suppliers in the first trimester of 2026, according to research from six sources. There has been a 45% decline in watch sales volumes since the 2010s, research shows. Renewed inflation pressures and doubts about consumer confidence are introducing new uncertainty into the watch market, major media reports.
Rebuilding confidence is going to take some time.
In Switzerland, the strong franc is a significant deterrent for tourists looking to purchase watches locally, according to research from six sources. The war has reinforced the Swiss franc's status as a safe haven at 0.79 against the dollar, research indicates. According to major media, there are approximately 450 watchmakers in Switzerland.
The war could lead to higher prices and slower global growth, with outcomes depending on conflict duration, spread, and damage, according to research from six sources. There is no such thing as energy independence, particularly for oil, as global markets are well integrated and disruptions in one part of the world lead to global price spikes, research shows. Clean energy technologies are not immune from supply chain disruptions stemming from geopolitical disputes, such as China's restrictions on critical mineral exports, according to research.
The theme a year ago was tariffs and uncertainty, and now there is even less certainty due to events in the Middle East.
The watch market generates tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue, according to major media. The Middle Eastern market accounts for a 5% share of global luxury sales, research from six sources indicates.
Market executives confirm a pronounced slowdown in the watch industry, with figures at their lowest levels, according to research from six sources. According to The Independent - Main, Philippe Pegoraro described expecting a sharp drop in exports in part because of logistical issues and sagging demand. According to The Independent - Main, Philippe Pegoraro described purchases from residents in the United Arab Emirates appearing to hold up, but tourist traffic that drives sales in places like Dubai airport has taken a hit due to Iranian strikes. According to The Independent - Main, Philippe Pegoraro described rebuilding confidence as going to take some time. According to The Independent - Main, Ming Liu described the theme a year ago as tariffs and uncertainty, and now there is even less certainty due to events in the Middle East. According to The Independent - Main, Ming Liu described the Middle East situation having a cloud over Watches and Wonders and everything else. According to www.luxurytribune.com, Arthur Jurus described the Middle East conflict acting more as a revealing factor than a trigger of the current weakness in the luxury sector, with direct impact limited but tangible. According to www.luxurytribune.com, Arthur Jurus described growth forecasts being slightly revised downward for the first half of 2026, with an expected contraction in the region due to declining tourism and local consumption.
The Middle East situation will have a cloud over Watches and Wonders and everything else.
Specific logistical issues affecting Swiss watch exports due to the war remain unclear, and the expected duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its full economic impact are unknown. Exact figures for the decline in Swiss watch exports in March 2026 have not been finalized, and the extent of luxury watch sales recovery or decline in the Middle East since the conflict began is uncertain. According to The Independent - Main, Philippe Pegoraro described official exports figures for March not being finalized until later this month.
Soaring prices for precious metals like gold and silver over the past year and U.S. President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs have impacted the market, according to major media. The war has caused serious disruption to directly affected countries' economies, including infrastructure and industry damage that could be long-lasting, according to research from six sources. Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director, stated that the war in the Middle East will lead to higher inflation and slower global growth, even if the conflict were to end immediately. A contradiction exists on the current status of the Middle East conflict: some reports suggest a truce has temporarily eased concerns, while ongoing disruptions and threats imply active conflict, creating uncertainty for risk assessments.
The Middle East conflict is acting more as a revealing factor than a trigger of the current weakness in the luxury sector, with direct impact limited but tangible.
Growth forecasts have been slightly revised downward for the first half of 2026, with an expected contraction in the region due to declining tourism and local consumption.