Christopher Luxon, New Zealand's prime minister, faced a leadership crisis on Tuesday as he called for a confidence vote during a caucus meeting that lasted more than two hours. According to multiple reports, Luxon's personal ratings have dipped to 17.3% in the preferred prime minister stakes, his lowest result across major polls since becoming leader in 2023. His net favourability dropped from -14 in January to -20.6, his weakest result in the Reid Research series since becoming National's leader in 2021. In a separate poll released on Sunday, just 16% of New Zealanders listed Luxon as their preferred leader, and the same poll indicated that his right-wing coalition would have lost if an election were held last week.
After the meeting, Luxon delivered a two-minute statement and took no questions. He said that he moved a formal motion of confidence in his leadership, which was passed, confirming he has the support of his caucus. He described the matter as closed and said he would not comment further. However, media outlet Stuff reported that MPs were refusing to say if Luxon won the confidence motion with unanimous support, leaving the exact vote count unclear. The National party whip, Stuart Smith, had felt obliged to raise concerns about Luxon's performance and requested a meeting with Luxon. According to the New Zealand Herald, Luxon reportedly 'ghosted' Smith and didn't meet with him, though Luxon disputed that a meeting was sought. This contradiction reflects internal party tensions and differing accounts of leadership challenges. In March, Luxon shook up his cabinet and re-election team to shore up his leadership, but the specific changes remain undisclosed.
People don't talk about polls. Right now, I'm very much focused on navigating fuel supply challenges and minimising the impacts on Kiwis.
The National party's support has been declining since it won 38% of the vote in 2023. In the RNZ-Reid Research poll, National support dropped one point to 30.8%, while Labour rose 0.6 points to 35.6%. The Greens were at 10.1%, Te Pāti Māori at 3.2%, Act party at 7%, and New Zealand First at 10.6%. If an election were held today, the parliamentary left and rights blocs would face a hung parliament, according to the poll. A second Taxpayers' Union Curia poll in March showed just 28.4% support for National, further underscoring the party's struggles. The coalition government, comprising National, Act, and New Zealand First, campaigned on promises to fix New Zealand's economy, which was battered by recession and stagnation after the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the economy grew just 0.2% in the December quarter, weaker than expectations, casting doubt on the government's recovery plan before the November election.
Public sentiment reflects the economic challenges. The RNZ-Reid Research poll, conducted in mid-March during escalating tensions in the Middle East and the global energy crisis, found that half of respondents said New Zealand was heading in the wrong direction, a four point increase since January. Only 32.3% of respondents thought the country was on the right track. Luxon acknowledged the public's concerns, stating that everyday New Zealanders are focused on their mortgages, children's education, and community safety, not political sideshows. According to The Guardian - World, Luxon described that people don't talk about polls and that he is focused on navigating fuel supply challenges and minimising impacts on New Zealanders. The global energy crisis and Middle East tensions could further affect New Zealand's economy and the election outcome, though the extent remains uncertain.
I moved a formal motion of confidence in my leadership. That motion was passed, confirming what I have been saying – I have the support of my caucus as their leader. Caucus has answered clearly and decisively. It has backed my leadership. That matter is now closed, and I won't be commenting further on it.
Chris Hipkins, leader of the Labour party, saw his preferred prime minister rating dip 0.4 points to 20.7%, still ahead of Luxon. Labour's rise in the polls positions it as a strong contender, but the party's ability to form a government depends on coalition dynamics with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori. The hung parliament scenario adds uncertainty to the political landscape, with potential leadership challenges within National not ruled out. The exact vote count in Luxon's confidence motion remains unknown, as does whether any other leadership challengers exist within the party. The coalition government's economic recovery plan faces headwinds from weak growth and global factors, and its success before the November election is uncertain.
Everyday Kiwis will not be losing sleep over political sideshows here in Wellington. They'll be thinking about their mortgage, their kids' education, and the safety and security of their community.