The US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, 2026, according to multiple research sources. The US and Israeli strikes targeted Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, and reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Iran retaliated within four hours, hitting Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf. The war erupted just after a third round of nuclear talks in Geneva concluded with the Omani mediator reporting 'significant progress', according to research sources.
The economic shock was immediate. Brent crude oil rose to $106 per barrel as of March 9, 2026, up more than 40% from $72 on February 27, according to research sources. LNG prices have risen almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. QatarEnergy suspended LNG production on March 2 after an Iranian drone attack, according to research sources. The International Energy Agency ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history, 400 million barrels, and the US released 172 million barrels from its strategic petroleum reserve, according to the White House.
This is a golden opportunity right now based on who’s in government
Lockheed Martin has emerged as a major beneficiary of the conflict. CEO Jim Taiclet called the Trump administration a 'golden opportunity' for the company, according to major media sources. Lockheed Martin is expanding its contracting work for the federal government amid the conflict, according to major media sources. Its relationship with the US government includes producing the Orion spacecraft for Artemis II and manufacturing top-secret missiles used in the conflict with Iran, according to major media sources. Since the start of the Iran conflict, the Pentagon has announced multiple contracts with Lockheed Martin worth billions of dollars, according to major media sources. Earlier this month, the Pentagon announced a $4.7bn contract to accelerate production of Pac-3 missile interceptors, and a $1.9bn contract for C-130J maintenance and aircrew training systems, according to major media sources. The Pentagon, Lockheed Martin, and BAE Systems agreed to quadruple production of THAAD interceptor seekers, according to the Pentagon. The sides agreed to quadruple THAAD interceptor production from 96 to 400 annually, according to research sources. The Pentagon and Honeywell Aerospace agreed to surge production of critical components for munitions, according to the Pentagon.
Lockheed Martin reported revenue of $18bn in Q1 2026, similar to Q1 2025. However, the company missed profit expectations for the first quarter due to lower volumes in its F-16 program and other classified programs, according to major media sources. In its earnings call, Lockheed Martin said its Missiles and Fire Control segment sales were up 8% year over year, driven by PAC-3, JASSM, LRASM, and PrSM programs. The company received $7 billion in PAC-3 contract orders in Q1 2026, according to the earnings call. Lockheed Martin announced a quadruple ramp of PrSM missile production and committed to tripling and quadrupling capacity for PAC-3 and THAAD interceptors, according to the earnings call. The White House has been trying to get Congress to pass a $1.5tn budget for the Pentagon, according to major media sources.
based on more available resources for us
The Strait of Hormuz closure has produced the largest disruption to the global oil market in history, according to the International Energy Agency. Iranian attacks on vessels in the strait have reduced traffic through the waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil and gas supplies, according to the IMF. About 25-30% of global oil and 20% of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IMF. About 84% of crude oil and 83% of LNG passing through the strait in 2024 was bound for Asia, according to the US Energy Information Administration. China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounted for nearly 70% of oil shipments through the strait, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
President Trump ordered the US military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian small boats choking the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement from Trump. The US military seized a tanker associated with smuggling Iranian oil, the Majestic X, in the Indian Ocean, according to the US military. Iran attacked three cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, capturing two of them, according to research sources. The de facto closure led to Brent crude surging past $120 per barrel, according to research sources. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all exports after the closure, according to research sources. Oil production of Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and UAE dropped by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10, and by at least 10 million barrels per day as of March 12, according to research sources. 70% of the region's food imports were disrupted, with a 40-120% spike in consumer prices, according to research sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threatened water supply in Kuwait and Qatar, according to research sources.
experience, their willingness to change, the demand that they have for what we do
The war has caused serious disruption to economies of directly affected countries, including damage to infrastructure and industries, according to the IMF. If the conflict is short-lived, oil prices could fall back to $65 per barrel by end of 2026, according to Neil Shearing and team at Capital Economics. However, the duration of the war remains uncertain. President Trump said the war could last up to four or five weeks, according to a statement. Al Jazeera's scenario analysis considers both short-lived and longer conflicts, implying uncertainty about duration. The exact current Brent crude oil price is unclear, with reports varying: major media sources reported Brent crude rose past $100 a barrel overnight and later rallied to $101 after comments from Iran's new supreme leader, while research sources reported it surged past $120 due to the Strait closure. The full extent of damage to oil and LNG production facilities in the Gulf region is not yet known. The status of the Strait of Hormuz—whether fully closed or partially operational—remains unclear. The specific terms of the new 'commercial-like' contracts between Lockheed Martin and the Pentagon have not been disclosed.
In a separate development, Prince Harry made an unannounced visit to Kyiv and called on Putin to end the war and on Trump to show leadership, according to Reuters.
We can move past the 'burden' of government contracting and move towards a 'commercial contracting system'
We will not be harmed by that