Major media reported that the Liberals have won the Nepean byelection, with candidate Anthony Marsh securing 38.5% of the primary vote and 63.4% on a two-candidate basis, despite suffering a nearly 10% swing against them on the primary vote.
According to vote counting updates, One Nation’s Darren Hercus overtook independent Tracee Hutchison after she initially led, finishing with 24.7% of the primary vote to her 21.3%. The Guardian reported that Benjamin Moffitt, a senior politics lecturer at Monash University, said the strong One Nation showing could bode poorly for the Liberals in the state election. Labor opted not to field a candidate, party sources indicated.
If they even do somewhat well in Nepean, that's a real problem for the Liberal party.
According to reports, the byelection was triggered by the sudden resignation of Victorian Liberal deputy leader Sam Groth. According to election officials, the Victorian Electoral Commission initially ran the two-candidate vote as a race between the Liberals and Hutchison before correcting it. Marsh admitted he did not live in the electorate and could not vote for himself. The final official result of the byelection has not yet been confirmed, and voter turnout has not been disclosed. It remains unclear how Marsh’s residency issue will affect his standing with voters.