Labour is facing a two-front electoral threat as both the Greens and Reform UK surge, with the party losing the Gorton and Denton by-election. According to Opinium polling, 47% of Labour voters would consider voting Green in a general election. The More in Common MRP poll projects Reform UK would win 324 seats, Labour 101, Tories 81, Liberal Democrats 62, SNP 26, and Greens 22.
Reform UK's projected seat tally is one short of a majority and 57 fewer than in More in Common's previous model in January. Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, warned that there doesn't appear to be anything such as a safe seat for Labour. Internal turmoil is mounting as senior Green sources claim that ten Labour MPs are ready to defect to the Green Party, and backbench Labour MPs have been holding informal discussions for months about working together with the Greens.
You'd be bonkers if you challenged him now because there's nothing we can do now… I think we absolutely get wiped out everywhere.
According to Daily Express - Politics, a Labour source described morale in the party as 'on the floor' but said there is no prospect of a leadership challenge before May elections. Angela Rayner called the by-election defeat a 'wake-up call' and urged rededication to a Labour agenda that puts people first. ' Party infighting has intensified, with Labour and Green figures trading barbs.
According to Daily Express - Politics, a Labour frontbencher said the party would not be pushed Left by 'the hypnotist' (Zack Polanski). Labour MP Luke Akehurst, according to Daily Mail - News, described the Green Party as being hijacked by the same political forces that dragged Labour into a moral cesspit of anti-Semitism in the Corbyn era. A Green source, according to Daily Mail - News, said their door is open to anyone who shares their values but, ideally, not people who have been propping up Starmer's government.
The only person who can get rid of Keir still is Keir. We find ourselves in the same situation the Democrats found themselves with Joe Biden.
A Green Party spokesman, according to Daily Mail - News, said they talk regularly to MPs from other parties and will continue to do so. ' The broader implications are stark: Starmer's approval rating is lower than those of Ed Davey (21%), Zack Polanski (22%), Kemi Badenoch (27%), and Nigel Farage (31%), according to Opinium polling. However, a Labour frontbencher dismissed the Green threat as a temporary anomaly, highlighting internal disagreement on whether the Green surge is systemic.
How many Labour MPs are actually considering defecting to the Green Party remains unclear, as does whether Starmer will face a leadership challenge after the May local elections. The accuracy of the More in Common MRP projections compared to actual election results is also uncertain.
We won't change tact because of one pretty unique constituency and by-election. We didn't for George Galloway and we won't for the hypnotist. The country expect us to deliver the change they voted for. By fixing the system we inherited with a firm but fair approach, we will help unite the country.
Let's not catastrophise what went on.
Keir is head and shoulders the strongest member of our Labour cabinet.
Labour may breathe a sigh of relief they are back above 100 seats in this latest projection, while Reform have slipped back and would now just sit on the cusp of a majority. But if anything what this latest model shows is that Labour, in a mirror of what faced the Tories in 2024, now faces a very real war on two fronts.
Our door is open to anyone who shares our values but, ideally, not people who have been propping up Starmer's government.
The same political forces that dragged Labour into a moral cesspit of anti-Semitism in the Corbyn era have hijacked the Green Party.
We talk regularly to MPs from other parties and will continue to do so.