The Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, were the second deadliest Islamist terrorist event, causing at least 1,195 deaths, over 3,400 injuries, and 251 kidnappings, according to research. On March 22, 2024, an Islamist attack in Moscow killed at least 144 people and injured almost 550. The deadliest attack in sub-Saharan Africa was the Islamic State takeover of Palma, Mozambique, from March 24 to April 5, 2021, killing 1,193 people and abducting 209, research indicates. These incidents underscore a broader trend of escalating violence across regions.
Research from Fondapol, which has published three reports on Islamist terrorism worldwide in 2019, 2021, and a third edition, shows the expansion of Islamist terrorism since 2012-2013 is undeniable, particularly in West Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. In Europe, excluding Russia, there have been 209 Islamist terrorist attacks and 802 deaths since 1979, with France as the worst-hit country, experiencing 85 attacks and 334 deaths in that period. Russia has faced 86 Islamist terrorist attacks and 988 deaths between 1998 and April 2024, according to research. This historical context reveals persistent threats across continents.
In the Sahel, violent extremist organizations threaten to exacerbate humanitarian crises and spread instability across Africa, posing risks to the U.S. and Europe, research suggests. Organizations like JNIM, ISGS, and ISWAP have taken advantage of a vacuum in counterterrorism support to launch attacks in the region. The Wagner Group has capitalized on the absence of foreign involvement to expand its influence in the Sahel, which serves as a principal transit point for migrants from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe, according to research. This instability creates fertile ground for jihadist exploitation.
Jihadist groups are increasingly using drones for strikes in West Africa, with at least 69 drone strikes by an al-Qaeda affiliate in Burkina Faso and Mali since 2023, research indicates. Islamic State affiliates have carried out around 20 drone strikes, mostly in Nigeria. ISWAP is identified as the most prolific IS African affiliate in drone warfare, according to Acled. Jihadists use commercially available drones rigged with explosives for strikes and reconnaissance, said Ladd Serwat, a senior Africa analyst at Acled, and they obtain drones through smuggling networks across porous borders in Nigeria, noted Malik Samuel, a senior researcher at Good Governance Africa. This technological evolution marks a shift in tactics.
Recent drone attacks include ISWAP carrying out 10 drone strikes since 2024 in Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, according to Ladd Serwat. On January 29, 2024, jihadists carried out a drone and ground assault on a military base in Borno state, Nigeria, killing nine soldiers, the military said. ISSP carried out an assault on Niamey airport and military bases in Niger on the same day, injuring four military personnel and killing 20 assailants, the defence ministry reported. It is unclear if ISSP used a drone in the Niger attack; if so, it would be their first explosive-laden drone use in Niger, Ladd Serwat noted, highlighting uncertainties in the evolving threat.
In Nigeria, jihadists killed at least 63 people in an attack on Darul Jamal on a Friday night, including five soldiers, state governor Babagana Zulum said. Residents reported the attack began around 8:30 pm with fighters on motorbikes firing assault rifles and torching homes. A civilian militia commander said at least 55 people were killed, while an NGO worker gave a toll of 64, indicating the exact death toll remains uncertain. Many victims were families recently relocated from a displacement camp in Bama, research shows, raising questions about Nigeria's push to close displacement camps and return inhabitants to rural areas.
Jihadist violence has waned since the peak of the Boko Haram insurgency from 2013 to 2015, but attacks continue in rural northeast Nigeria, according to research. The area of the Darul Jamal attack is under the control of Boko Haram commander Ali Ngulde, who led the assault, a security source said. Boko Haram's insurgency since 2009 has left around 40,000 dead and forced over two million to flee in northeast Nigeria, research indicates. This enduring threat underscores the group's resilience.
The Nigerian army's numerical strength is insufficient to contain the situation, and Forest Guards are being established to augment security.
In response, the U.S. military has increased its involvement in Nigeria, with about 100 U.S. troops arriving last month to train soldiers against Islamic militants and other armed groups, not in combat roles, research reports. U.S. military trainers in Nigeria are using high-powered drones for surveillance and intelligence gathering, not strikes, the Nigerian military said. Nigeria faces militant groups including Boko Haram, Islamic State affiliates, and groups specializing in kidnapping and illegal mining, research notes. The U.S. previously operated a drone base in Niger, which has since shuttered after the junta ordered U.S. forces to depart, according to research.
As of August 31, 2024, 98 hostages from the October 7 attacks are still held by Hamas, research indicates. This ongoing hostage situation adds to the humanitarian toll of Islamist terrorism.
In a related development, police suspect the local jihadist group Mahmuda in a reported incident, according to Aftonbladet. The specific evidence or basis for this suspicion and the current status of the investigation remain unknown.
The Nigerian air force said it killed 30 terrorists in the Darul Jamal attack. This counterstrike reflects ongoing military efforts to curb violence.
The regional security gaps highlighted by these attacks have led to significant humanitarian consequences, including displacement and casualties. Governor Babagana Zulum stated that the Nigerian army's numerical strength is insufficient to contain the situation, and Forest Guards are being established to augment security. The effectiveness and timeline of establishing these Forest Guards are uncertain.
Official statements and local accounts provide mixed perspectives on the crisis. U.S. President Joe Biden remarked that the terrorist threat has metastasized globally, citing threats from Al Shabaab, al-Qaeda networks, and ISIS. This underscores the international dimension of the threat.
Key uncertainties persist, including whether ISSP used a drone in the Niger attack on January 29, 2024, which would mark their first explosive-laden drone use in the country. The exact death toll from the Darul Jamal attack in Nigeria also remains unclear, with figures ranging from at least 55 to 64.