The Russian shadow fleet is a key topic at the meeting of the ten countries in the British-led defense cooperation Joint Expeditionary Force in Helsinki. UK Defence Secretary John Healey has convened JEF defence ministers to discuss coordinated measures to degrade Russia's 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers and merchant vessels. According to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the shadow fleet will be subjected to harder measures.
Russia's shadow fleet operates under opaque ownership structures and flags of convenience to circumvent Western sanctions. For instance, the Cook Islands-flagged Eagle S oil tanker is suspected of damaging the EstLink 2 undersea electricity cable and breaking four communications cables. The JEF was initiated by the UK in 2014 after Russia's annexation of Crimea.
The JEF comprises the UK, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. The JEF is a flexible, operationally oriented military partnership for rapid response in northern Europe and the High North, unlike NATO. In crises, JEF's primary task is rapid response in the Baltic Sea, Northern Europe, and the High North.
NATO is not at war with Russia and is not party to the war in Ukraine. NATO supports Ukraine's right to self-defence under the UN Charter and does not seek confrontation with Russia. No treaty signed by NATO Allies and Russia ever included provisions that NATO cannot take on new members.
NATO did not invade Georgia in 2008 or Ukraine in 2014 and 2022; Russia did. Russia's hybrid warfare poses an acute challenge to European societies by exploiting legal gray zones and democratic openness. Russia's hybrid methods include disinformation, cyber attacks, sabotage, GPS jamming, and assassination plots.
Nordic-Baltic regional coordination is crucial in responding to Russian gray zone aggression. Russia's invasion of Ukraine was a strategic blunder that weakened its economy and military. Russia's aggression compelled Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership.
Finland and Sweden have long been regarded by Moscow as 'virtual' NATO allies due to close partnership and interoperability. Moscow now believes NATO has gone to war with Russia. Russia has significantly reconstituted its forces and could pose a formidable threat to Europe in the near and medium term.
Europe needs to undertake a massive buildup of unmanned vehicles and strengthen border forces, sea control, and critical infrastructure resilience. Russia will remain a fundamental threat to Europe's security for the foreseeable future. Russia has revised its nuclear doctrine to expand conditions for nuclear weapon use, including retaliation to conventional attacks threatening sovereignty of Russia or Belarus.
Aggression against Russia by a member of a military bloc is seen as aggression by the entire bloc, tacitly referencing NATO. Sweden and Finland are distributing civil defense guidance to residents on how to survive in wartime. Sweden's booklet includes advice on nuclear attacks and notes that those aged 16-70 may be called to help in war.
JEF activated a UK-led AI system to monitor vessels, including shadow fleet ships, approaching key areas of interest. After the Balticconnector pipeline destruction in 2023, JEF sent military vessels and aircraft to protect critical infrastructure. The specific 'harder measures' against the shadow fleet being planned or implemented by the JEF have not been detailed.
How extensive and coordinated Russia's hybrid warfare activities targeting critical infrastructure in the Baltic region are remains unclear. The detailed conditions under Russia's revised nuclear doctrine that could trigger nuclear weapon use are not publicly specified. What specific civil defense measures Nordic countries are taking beyond distributing guidance booklets is not widely publicized.