Iran war triggers largest oil supply disruption ever

The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure have produced the largest disruption to the global oil market in its history, according to the International Energy Agency. Brent crude was priced at $106 per barrel as of Monday, up more than 40% from $72 on February 27, according to research from 12 sources. LNG prices have risen by almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March 2026, Brent crude surged past $120 per barrel and QatarEnergy declared force majeure on all exports, according to research from 12 sources. (Note: The Brent crude price figures of $106 and $120 are from different dates and sources, and may reflect a rapid escalation.) Iran's military command spokesperson said, 'Get ready for oil to be $200 a barrel.'

The coordinated attacks on Iranian military, nuclear, and leadership sites, including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, represent a profound shock to Iran's political system, according to research from 12 sources. US President Donald Trump's direct address to the Iranian people, 'Take over your government, it will be yours to take,' makes regime change the explicit goal. Iran retaliated within four hours, hitting Israel, US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, and civilian infrastructure across the Gulf, according to research from 12 sources. Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, Tehran has launched ballistic missiles targeting Israel, US military bases, oil depots, and other infrastructure across the Gulf region, according to research from 12 sources. Iranian attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced traffic; about 20% of global oil and gas supplies transit through the strait, according to research from 12 sources. (Note: Another source cites 25-30% of global oil and 20% of LNG, indicating conflicting figures.) Iraq halted all operations at its oil ports after an attack on two nearby tankers, according to research from 12 sources. Bahrain told residents to stay at home after an Iranian attack on fuel tanks, according to research from 12 sources. Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, called for the Strait of Hormuz to 'remain closed.'

The impact echoes the 1970s energy crisis with acute supply shortages, currency volatility, inflation, and risks of stagflation and recession, according to research from 12 sources. Interest rate reductions were expected to be postponed or increased due to higher inflation, according to research from 12 sources. Stock markets declined globally and there was a global bonds market sell-off, according to research from 12 sources. Wall Street opened lower (Dow down 1.1%, S&P 500 down nearly 1%); European and Asian markets also fell, according to research from 12 sources.

Arab states of the Persian Gulf and Iran rely on the Strait of Hormuz for energy exports and grocery imports; only Saudi Arabia and UAE have alternative routes, according to research from 12 sources. The maritime blockade triggered a 'grocery supply emergency' across GCC states; by mid-March, 70% of food imports were disrupted, causing 40-120% price spikes, according to research from 12 sources. Iranian strikes on desalination plants threaten the source of 99% of drinking water in Kuwait and Qatar, according to research from 12 sources. Regional aviation faced near-total cessation due to airspace closures, disrupting global air travel, according to research from 12 sources. The conflict has been described as the 'end of the narrative' that the Gulf is a safe destination for expatriates, immigrants, and tourists, according to the Middle East Council on Global Affairs.

If the conflict is short-lived, oil and LNG prices would fall back sharply with Brent crude reaching $65 per barrel by year-end; in a longer war, oil prices could rise to around $130 per barrel in Q2, according to a Capital Economics report. The IEA ordered the largest release of government reserves in its history on Wednesday, with 400 million barrels released by its 32 members, according to research from 12 sources. The US agreed to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from its strategic petroleum reserve, according to research from 12 sources.

The war in the Middle East is causing a global shock that is asymmetric, affecting energy importers more than exporters, poorer countries more than richer ones, according to research from 12 sources. The war has caused serious disruption to the economies of the most directly affected countries, including damage to infrastructure and industries, according to research from 12 sources. Large energy importers in Asia and Europe are bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input costs; about 25-30% of global oil and 20% of LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to research from 12 sources. (Note: This figure differs from the earlier 20% for oil and gas, reflecting conflicting data.) Low-income countries are especially at risk of food insecurity and may need more external support, according to research from 12 sources. The war could shape the global economy in different ways, all leading to higher prices and slower growth, according to research from 12 sources.

Husqvarna Group is implementing a transformational cost-out program for 2026-2030, expected to yield annual run-rate savings of SEK 4 billion by end of 2030, with total non-recurring costs of SEK 1.5 billion, according to research from 3 sources. The cost-out program includes optimizing sourcing and geographical manufacturing footprint, and transitioning to a more asset-light business model, according to research from 2 sources. According to Jönköpings-Posten, Glen Instone described that there is a high probability that 'hemester' (staycation) will become the norm this year, as many major airlines are already reducing flights. According to Jönköpings-Posten, Glen Instone described that if staycation becomes the norm again, it could have a positive domino effect on Husqvarna's products, as people staying home may spend more on their gardens. In the first quarter, Husqvarna saved approximately 245 million SEK, according to major media. According to Jönköpings-Posten, Glen Instone described that the cost-saving program is absolutely crucial for Husqvarna's future. Husqvarna's CEO Glen Instone stated: 'We are committed to transforming to profitable growth through focused actions built on strategic portfolio management and operational excellence.'

Husqvarna Group's AGM adopted profit and loss statements, set dividend at SEK 1.25 per share in two installments, and discharged liability, according to research from 12 sources. Husqvarna Group's Board of Directors comprises nine members; Torbjörn Lööf re-elected as Chair, according to research from 12 sources. Husqvarna Group approved a long-term incentive program for 2026 (LTI 2026) and authorized equity swap arrangements, according to research from 12 sources. Husqvarna Group authorized the issue of up to approximately 57.6 million new B-shares against payment in kind, according to research from 12 sources. Husqvarna Group's new financial targets: average annual organic sales growth of 3-5%, operating margin >10%, ROCE 15% over a business cycle, according to research from 2 sources. Husqvarna Group reiterates dividend policy of 40% of net income, according to research from 2 sources. Husqvarna Group's new sustainability targets for 2030: reduce CO2 emissions by 60% from 2015 baseline, circular offerings to account for 25% of net sales, according to research from 12 sources.

Svea Bank launched a new service 'Starta bolag' that combines bank certificate and business account in one digital flow, allowing company formation in minutes, according to research from 12 sources. The number of newly started limited companies in Sweden increased by nine percent in 2025, according to Bolagsverket.

Several unknowns remain. The current status of the Strait of Hormuz is unclear—whether it is fully closed or partially operational. The exact number of casualties and the extent of infrastructure damage from the conflict have not been confirmed. The duration of the conflict is uncertain; two scenarios are possible: a short conflict ending in days with a de facto ceasefire, or a 'forever war' with extended strikes and regional involvement, according to research from 12 sources. Conflicting figures exist for the Brent crude oil price and the percentage of global oil and LNG that transits the Strait of Hormuz, with some sources citing 25-30% of oil and 20% of LNG, while others say about 20% of oil and gas supplies.