Multiple reports indicate that the situation on the oil market remains strained due to the Iran war. This has led to an increased risk that Sweden may need to ration fuel, according to major media sources. Sweden has only experienced fossil fuel shortages twice before, in 1956 and 1974, highlighting the severity of the potential crisis.
The Iran war, including uncertainty around oil transports through the Strait of Hormuz, could drive a new crisis, according to reports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that aviation fuel in Europe risks running out within six weeks, according to major media sources. According to Svenska Dagbladet, commodity analyst Christian Kopfer described that if the situation persists into June–July, then he believes Sweden will be at the point of rationing.
If this situation persists into June–July, then I think we will be there.
The specific fuel rationing measures Sweden might implement remain unclear, as does the duration of the Iran war needed for rationing to become necessary. The current status of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is also uncertain, and it is not known which European countries are most affected by the aviation fuel shortage. Alternatives to mitigate the fuel shortage in Sweden have not been specified.