Iran-U.S. Tensions Rise as Ghalibaf Becomes Key Figure

Iran's parliament and the Revolutionary Guard have issued sharp warnings to the United States, threatening counterattacks if the U.S. acts on its threats against Iran. Inhabitants in Iran have demonstrated against attacks by Israel and the U.S., according to official sources. The Pentagon is awaiting President Trump's approval for weeks of ground operations in Iran, according to the Washington Post, signaling a potential escalation in the conflict.

Thousands of U.S. sailors and marines moved to the Middle East aboard the USS Tripoli warship as part of a military buildup. Yemen's Houthis continued to attack Israel, launching a second attack less than 24 hours after the first, expanding the regional conflict. Oil prices are on track for a record monthly surge amid the instability, while Pakistan hosted talks with regional powers to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is the speaker of Iran's parliament and a major power player, according to multiple reports. He has emerged as the person in Iran that President Trump reportedly seems most keen to talk to, with the U.S. president searching for a pragmatic new leader who would agree to abandon nuclear ambitions, with focus on Ghalibaf. This positioning makes him a pivotal figure in the ongoing geopolitical standoff.

Ghalibaf is a former Revolutionary Guard commander and former police chief with a reputation for extreme brutality. Many Iranians regard him as a butcher for his role in suppressing student protests in 1999, 2003, and 2009, and protestors nicknamed him the 'rooftop killer' after students were thrown from building tops. In a leaked audio tape, Ghalibaf bragged about beating protestors with wooden sticks and being proud of it, and he boasted about securing government permission to have security forces enter a campus and shoot at students.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was born in 1961 in Mashad, Khorosan, and has roots in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He commanded the IRGC's 5th Nasr division during the Iran-Iraq war and was a protege of Ali Khamenei, serving as head of IRGC Aerospace and head of police. Ghalibaf was mayor of Tehran from 2005 to 2017, during which accusations of corruption surfaced, solidifying his position within Iran's power structure.

Ghalibaf lacks the sophistication of the late Ali Larijani and has an image as a strongman, according to multiple reports. He was described as an 'authoritarian moderniser' in a New York Times profile, and in 2013, he ordered that all female secretaries, typists, or office managers in municipal offices be replaced with men, reflecting his conservative and controlling approach to governance.

Contradictory signals surround U.S.-Iran negotiations and Ghalibaf's role. The Trump administration is reportedly eyeing Ghalibaf as a possible U.S.-backed leader of Iran despite his threats against the U.S., and he is reportedly the main go-between for the U.S. and Iran. Trump hailed 'very good' talks with an unidentified Iranian official, which Iran denied, with Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei stating no talks with the U.S. had taken place.

Historical evidence from WikiLeaks memos suggests Ghalibaf's private openness to nuclear compromise. On October 20, 2008, Ghalibaf, then Mayor of Tehran, visited the Peace Memorial Museum in Hiroshima, Japan, where he was shown a pocket watch that stopped at 8:15 am on August 6, 1945, the moment Hiroshima was destroyed by an American nuclear bomb, killing 140,000 people. U.S. officials debriefed Japanese counterparts after the visit and relayed details in two 'secret' and 'confidential' memos to the State Department, which were later published by WikiLeaks. According to U.S. intelligence memos, Ghalibaf, in private conversations with Japanese officials, indicated he was open to compromise on nuclear issues, differing marginally in tone from the Iranian regime; the memos stated he parroted the regime line in the presence of another Iranian official but indicated a desire for dialogue when alone. U.S. intelligence has been watching Ghalibaf for many years, according to multiple reports.

Ghalibaf's recent strategic influence has grown, and he has publicly taunted Trump. Following the death of Ali Larijani, Ghalibaf reportedly took on responsibility for making strategic decisions, making him highly influential. He has been posting taunting memes in English on X to counter Trump's posts on the war, and he stated that the attack on the Kesh desalination plant was carried out with the support of one of the air bases of the southern neighboring countries. Ghalibaf also claimed that American military bases in the region have become platforms for operations against Iran.

Analysts are sceptical that Ghalibaf would be as willing to roll over as Venezuela's leader Delcy Rodríguez, according to multiple reports. Furthermore, Ghalibaf cannot in the short term become Iran's de facto leader due to political and religious constraints, limiting his immediate potential for leadership change.

Uncertainty surrounds Iran's supreme leadership and Mojtaba Khamenei's status. Power in Iran lies with the supreme leader, and Mojtaba Khamenei has been selected to that role, but he has not been seen since his election and is believed to be seriously injured. Iran insists he is the functioning decision-maker, but his current health and functional status remain unclear, adding to the instability at the top of the Iranian government.

Domestic Iranian mobilization efforts include unverified claims. There are reports of people forming human chains around important infrastructure in Iran to protect them, according to Samar Hadrous. The claim of 7 million volunteers to fight U.S. troops in Iran has not been confirmed by any authorities, and the Revolutionary Guard's Basij force has reportedly begun accepting recruits as young as 12, indicating a push for broader recruitment amid the crisis.

Internationally, 18 European countries urged Israel and Hezbollah to stop fighting, seeking to de-escalate regional tensions. Sky News halted live coverage for an urgent update after Ghalibaf rejected Trump's claim of negotiations, highlighting the media focus on the conflicting narratives.