The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated again on Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis and push the countries into renewed conflict. This followed a US blockade of Iranian ports and coastal areas, which the US said no ships had passed through in its first 24 hours, though tracking data verified by the BBC showed four Iran-linked ships crossed the strait after the blockade began. The navy of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps said it extended a closure to the corridor it had earlier designated for safe passage and declared the strait fully closed until the US blockade is lifted, warning in a statement carried by state media that any violating vessel would be targeted. Iran considers the US blockade a violation of the ceasefire between the two countries, and on Friday had said vessels could move through the strait in coordination with it and against payment of a toll. Diplomatic developments continued alongside the military posturing, with a 'historic' meeting between Israel and Lebanon in the US concluding with both parties agreeing to 'direct' negotiations, and the US and Iran could resume talks 'over the next two days'.
Violence has flared in Lebanon despite a US-brokered ceasefire that has otherwise largely held. The U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon came under attack with small arms fire Saturday morning, with two of the injured hurt seriously. Both President Emmanuel Macron and the UNIFIL force blamed Hezbollah, but the Lebanese militant group denied involvement. Separately, the Israeli military said a soldier, an officer, was killed in south Lebanon on Friday, after the ceasefire began, marking the second soldier to die since the truce. The military said another soldier was badly wounded in the same incident, along with four moderately wounded and four lightly injured, and that two other soldiers were injured, though it didn’t release more details. This brings to 14 the number of Israeli soldiers killed in the latest war in Lebanon.
In Iran’s capital, an explosion occurred, with Iranian outlets reporting the incident. The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency said the explosion was caused by two homemade explosive packages based on liquefied gas. Three people sustained minor injuries from the explosion, which shattered the windows of three houses and caused minor damage to two vehicles.
Iran responded to American and Israeli attacks almost immediately with missile and drone strikes across the United Arab Emirates, even hitting Dubai International Airport. Major Gulf hubs including Dubai, the world's busiest international airport, remained closed or severely restricted for a fourth day, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded. According to Flightradar24, some 21,300 flights have been canceled at seven major airports including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi since the strikes started. The United Arab Emirates government said 60 flights had taken off, operating in dedicated emergency air corridors, while Emirates, flydubai and Etihad have been operating a limited number of flights since Monday, mostly to repatriate stranded passengers.
The talks showed the three nations 'are on the same side of the equation'.
The travel disruption has left many scrambling, with the U.S. State Department urging Americans in the Middle East to leave the region immediately as escalating conflict and widespread airspace closures disrupt travel and evacuation efforts. The U.S. State Department is securing military and charter flights to evacuate Americans from the Middle East, a US State Department official said. Delta Air Lines said on Tuesday it paused New York-Tel Aviv flights through March 22 because of the conflict.
International reactions to the blockade and attacks have been sharp. China has condemned the blockade, calling it dangerous and irresponsible. Iran said the blockade is a grave violation of its sovereignty. India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri on Saturday met Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, and conveyed India’s deep concern after two India-bound energy-carrying vessels were prevented from transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian naval guards.
Ship attacks have compounded the Strait of Hormuz crisis, with two vessels attacked earlier on Saturday in the Strait of Hormuz and off Oman’s coast, at least one of them by Iranian gunboats.
The broader conflict, now in its eighth week, stems from escalating tensions that saw the US and Israel launch strikes against Iran, prompting retaliatory attacks across the region. The ceasefire brokered by the US has been fragile, with incidents in Lebanon and the strait threatening to unravel it. The situation remains volatile as military actions and diplomatic maneuvers unfold simultaneously.
The talks were 'productive'.
Reactions from regional governments and militant groups reflect deep divisions. Hezbollah’s head, Naim Kassem, stated in a press conference that a paper published by the U.S. State Department describing the text of a ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel means nothing at the practical level, but it is an insult to our country. He added that the truce should entail a complete cessation of all hostilities and that Hezbollah will respond to enemy violations. In contrast, at a press conference following the Israel-Lebanon meeting, Israel's ambassador to the US said the talks showed the three nations are on the same side of the equation, while the Lebanese ambassador called them productive. France’s Foreign Minister, Jean-Noel Barrot, announced that several repatriation flights for French nationals in the Middle East were planned for Wednesday.
Implications for global energy markets and trade are significant, given that the Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for oil shipments. The closure and attacks threaten to disrupt supplies, potentially exacerbating energy shortages and driving up prices worldwide. The cancellation of thousands of flights also impacts global connectivity and tourism, with economic ripple effects likely to be felt across industries dependent on Middle Eastern hubs.
Key unresolved questions persist amid the chaos. The current status of the US-Iran talks mentioned by the US remains unclear, as does the full extent of damage and casualties from the Iranian missile and drone strikes on the UAE. Responsibility for the attack on the U.N. peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon is disputed, with Hezbollah denying involvement despite accusations from France and UNIFIL.
Further unknowns include how many total travelers remain stranded in the Middle East due to flight cancellations, beyond the tens of thousands indicated by airport closures and flight data. Specific measures to resolve the Strait of Hormuz standoff and ensure safe passage for vessels are also not detailed, with contradictions in ship movements—where tracking data shows crossings despite Iran’s closure declaration—suggesting either enforcement gaps or confusion about compliance, impacting assessments of the blockade’s effectiveness and regional security.