The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, has been effectively closed for nearly three weeks, according to multiple reports. Over 100 gas and oil tankers and container ships that usually pass daily are now trapped, with an estimated 1,000 vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf. Traffic through the waterway has fallen by 90% since the start of the Iran war, with only about 150 vessels transiting since March 1 compared to over 100 per day normally. This severe disruption includes 85 large oil tankers carrying at least 21 billion litres of crude, posing a significant ecological disaster risk.
Iran is setting itself up as the gatekeeper for the strait, creating a system of permits, inspections, and tolls. According to the Fars news agency, the plan includes a ban on ships from the U.S., Israel, and countries supporting sanctions against Iran. A toll system is already in practice, with ships getting safe passage in exchange for information and inspections, escorted by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps through Iranian territorial waters north of Larak Island. At least two vessels have reportedly paid for passage under this 'toll booth' system.
In a letter to the UN's International Maritime Organization, Iran stated it plans to expand the number of vessels allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The letter states that 'non-hostile' vessels can pass in cooperation with Iranian authorities, while ships linked to the U.S., Israel, or countries 'participating in aggression' are not considered innocent or non-hostile. Iran responded to former U.S. President Donald Trump's peace plan with demands including closure of U.S. bases in the Middle East and a new toll for Strait shipping.
Transit activity remains limited and dominated by Iran-affiliated vessels. Iran-affiliated ships accounted for 60% of transits in the first part of the war and about 90% in recent days, according to multiple reports. About half of vessels turn off their radio identification systems before transiting and reappear on the other side, operating as 'dark' ships. The route north of Larak Island, used for escorted passage, is mine-free, according to The Times of India. Tolls for passage are paid in yuan, China's currency.
The international community has condemned Iran's actions. Twenty countries, including Sweden, issued a joint statement condemning Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on ships, and stated they are ready to contribute to ensuring safe passage. The Pentagon plans to send 3,000 U.S. paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, according to sources. The United Arab Emirates is ready to use force to reopen the Strait, according to anonymous sources.
I will take out Iran if it fails to reopen the Strait by a deadline.
The economic impact has been severe globally. Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, with Goldman Sachs forecasting $98–110 averages in March and April. War insurance premiums have soared to between 3.5% and 7.5% of a vessel's value, up from 1% to 1.5% a week earlier and 0.25% before the war. The International Energy Agency described the crisis as creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.
Several countries have secured bilateral agreements with Iran for safe passage of their vessels. Asian nations like Pakistan, India, and the Philippines have made agreements with Iran to let some ships pass safely, with China acknowledging its vessels have used the channel. The Philippines struck a deal with Iran for safe passage of Philippines-flagged ships, vital for its energy and fertilizer supplies, as it imports 98% of its oil from the Middle East. Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu confirmed on March 13 that Iran approved passage for a Turkish ship, with 14 additional Turkish-owned vessels awaiting clearance.
Specific vessel transits under these agreements have been documented. Two Indian-flagged LPG tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. A Pakistan-flagged Aframax tanker called the Karachi sailed out of the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, becoming the first non-Iranian vessel to transit with its AIS signal turned on, suggesting guided passage by Iran. Three Pakistani oil tankers have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past ten days, according to Pakistan National Shipping Corporation sources. Three Chinese ships recently passed through the Strait, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
Iran has continued its oil exports despite the blockade. Iran's Kharg Island terminal loaded 1.6 million barrels in March, largely unchanged from prewar totals, with most customers being small private refineries in China. About 90 ships including oil tankers have crossed the Strait since the war outset, with many being 'dark' transits evading sanctions, and Iran has exported over 16 million barrels of oil since early March. An Iranian supertanker was spotted in waters north of Hormuz on Sunday with its destination listed as China, and a VLCC, an LPG ship, and a couple of bulk carriers linked to Iran were among vessels seen exiting the Gulf early Sunday.
The conflict has spilled over regionally with humanitarian consequences. An Iranian drone was shot down over Lebanon on Tuesday, causing a large explosion north of Beirut, with a possible target being the U.S. embassy. Lebanon's foreign minister expelled Iran's ambassador earlier that day. Over 1,000 people in Lebanon have been killed in the war, with one person killed in Israel. Israel has ordered all bridges over the Litani River in southern Lebanon to be blown up to hinder Hezbollah movements, and plans to occupy the area south of the river.
I would remember if NATO counterparts did not help.
Greek sailors are among those trapped by the crisis. Approximately 90 Greek sailors remain trapped on 10 ships under Greek flag in the Strait of Hormuz. Efforts for their repatriation are ongoing, with the Greek Ministry of Foreign Affairs prioritizing this. The Greek government stated it prioritizes the safety of all Greeks in the wider region and is in daily contact with the ships and crews, the operations room, and the ship-owning companies.
The broader shipping crisis involves thousands of vessels and sailors. Multiple shipping companies' vessels, including Swedish Stena Bulk's, are stuck in the Persian Gulf due to the uncertain situation. Approximately 1,000 ocean-going ships and 20,000 sailors are stranded in the Arabian Gulf unable to transit. The International Maritime Organization reports approximately 3,000 commercial ships remain within the wider Arabian Gulf. At an international level, proposals have been submitted for escort by warships to restore traffic.
Recent traffic data shows conflicting numbers and ongoing uncertainties. At least 89 ships crossed between March 1 and 15, including 16 oil tankers, down from 100-135 per day prewar, with over one-fifth Iran-affiliated. Since Sunday, approximately 40 ships have passed through the strait. Data from the shipping analysis company Kpler, shared on Wednesday, shows that traffic through the waterway is approximately 90% lower compared to the previous week. The exact number of ships currently trapped remains unclear, with estimates varying from 1,000 to 3,000 vessels, and the specific criteria Iran uses to determine 'non-hostile' status for passage is not publicly detailed.
International diplomatic stances vary significantly. Norway supports EU and UN sanctions against Iran, making it difficult for Norwegian ships to sail through the Strait. About 30 Norwegian ships were in the area when the war started, with only a few having gotten out and 20 trapped in the Persian Gulf. Iran has rewarded Spain by allowing Spanish ships to pass through the Strait without restrictions, as a thank you for Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's criticism of the U.S. and Israel. Major allies including Japan, Australia, and the UK declined to commit naval forces in response to Trump's call for warships to secure the strait.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz cannot be overstated, as it handles a significant portion of global oil shipments. The war has displaced up to 3.2 million Iranians, according to the UN refugee agency. Approximately 1,000 ships—half of which are oil and natural gas tankers—remain in the Gulf and surrounding waters, highlighting the scale of the disruption. The long-term environmental risk posed by the trapped oil tankers is a major concern, though contingency plans are not fully known.
Several key unknowns persist as the situation develops. Beyond the unclear ship counts and Iranian criteria, the full list of countries with safe passage agreements is not complete. The effectiveness and international response to proposals for escorting ships by warships remains uncertain. Ongoing negotiations and military posturing will determine whether traffic can be restored without further escalation.