The immediate impact of the conflict was a collapse in flights through key Gulf hubs like Dubai and Qatar, stranding thousands and upending Europe-Asia connections, according to multiple reports. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary has warned passengers could encounter serious disruption in early May should the Middle East conflict persist. According to Daily Express - Travel, a Jet2 employee described to a concerned passenger that all flights are currently planned to operate as normal, but passengers have been cautioned about possible jet fuel shortages resulting from the Iran conflict.
The war, which research indicates began on Feb. 28 and was unleashed by Donald Trump and Israel on Iran, has led to the Strait of Hormuz being largely closed to shipping for about a month, according to multiple reports. This has disrupted one-fifth of the world's oil and gas supply, according to multiple reports. About a fifth of the world's oil, around 20 million barrels daily, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to US Energy Information Administration estimates. Energy shipments from the Middle East have been at a standstill following Iran's threats to attack vessels in the Strait of Hormuz as retaliation against US-Israeli strikes, research indicates.
Oil prices have soared to close to $120 (£90) a barrel due to strikes on shipping and energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports. The disruption has led to reduced access to fossil fuels, higher prices, and rattled global markets. Since the war outbreak, it has become evident that oil and gas supplies are concentrated in conflict-vulnerable regions, transport routes can be disrupted, and price volatility spreads quickly, research shows. The price of kerosene jet fuel has doubled to about €1,500 per metric ton since Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports.
The blockade has led to a global oil shortage, rocking Gulf-reliant Asian countries hard, research indicates. The Philippines has mandated four-day work weeks to save fuel due to the oil shortage, according to multiple reports. Indonesia is seeking ways to avoid burning through reserves that will last just weeks due to the oil shortage, research shows. China is the world's largest buyer of oil and is feeling the strain from the oil shortage, but it sits in a better position than its neighbours due to years of statecraft preparing it for a global energy crisis, according to multiple reports.
Fuel suppliers are constantly looking at the market. We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June, and we hope the war will finish sooner than that and the risk to supply will be eliminated.
China uses an estimated 15 to 16 million barrels of oil daily, according to various market analysts. Gulf countries are a major source of oil for China, with Saudi Arabia and Iran accounting for over 10% of its imports each, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Most of China's imported crude oil from Iran and the Middle East is used as fuel for factories and transportation in southern China, research indicates. Northern China is mainly powered by domestically produced oil and pipeline imports from Russia, which are not disrupted by the war, and Russian oil accounts for nearly a fifth of China's energy imports, making Moscow its biggest oil supplier, according to multiple reports. Coal is the dominant source of power for most of China's electricity, and China is the world's largest coal producer, accounting for over half of global production, while oil and gas account for just over a quarter of China's total energy, research shows.
Travellers are facing rising airfare costs and reductions in flight schedules due to soaring oil prices from the Middle East conflict, according to multiple reports. Experts predict ticket prices could remain elevated for months even if the war de-escalates. Increased demand on flight routes avoiding Middle East and Gulf stopovers means flyers are paying more, research indicates. Cathay Pacific, AirAsia, Thai Airways, Qantas, SAS, and Air New Zealand are among airlines increasing fares or fuel surcharges due to higher jet fuel costs, according to multiple reports. Thai Airways expects airfares to increase by 10% to 15%, according to its officials. Air New Zealand has raised fares on domestic, short-haul, and long-haul flights by specific amounts, research shows. Air France-KLM has announced a ticket surcharge on long-haul flights, and Finnair said prices will increase due to the war, according to multiple reports.
Korean Air will enter 'emergency management mode' from April due to rising oil prices, according to a source and an internal notice from Vice Chairman Woo Kee-hong. Vietnam Airlines will temporarily cut flights due to aviation fuel shortages caused by the conflict, as stated by the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam. Asian airlines are starting to slash flights, and the same may happen in Europe in coming weeks, according to multiple reports. SAS Scandinavian Airlines has canceled about a thousand flights due to high fuel prices, research indicates.
Lufthansa and Ryanair have fuel hedging in place to secure part of their supply at fixed prices, according to multiple reports. Lufthansa does not see any kerosene shortages at its hubs currently, according to spokesperson Sandra Courant. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr presented contingency plans to ground 20 or 40 planes, about 5% of capacity, depending on the situation, research shows.
There's a reasonable risk of 10-25% of supplies being at risk, leading to forced capacity cuts.
The UK imports about 50% of its jet fuel from the Gulf, and the final tanker from before the war is en route to Britain, according to multiple reports. The Business Secretary has stated there are no supply chain difficulties for jet fuel 'at this moment,' according to major media reports. British airlines are currently unaffected by any disruption to their jet fuel supplies, according to an industry body, as reported by major media.
Beyond airline updates, Greece experienced travel chaos this week following a devastating storm that struck parts of the nation, and Crete was shrouded in a Saharan dust storm, according to major media reports.
The UN says the closure underscores that energy security is about resilience and finding alternative power sources. Countries are vulnerable to sudden fossil fuel supply disruptions as they rely on them for daily needs and economic growth, research indicates. Transitioning to renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and water, can guard against crises caused by lack of fossil fuel access, offering a more accessible and cheaper model, according to multiple reports. The ongoing crisis exposes a central vulnerability in the global economy: dependence on fossil fuels from conflict-affected regions, strengthening the UN's case for faster transition to renewable power, research shows.
Entering week 4 of the war, there are no signs of an imminent ceasefire, with effects widespread and impactful, especially surging oil prices, according to multiple reports. The exact timeline of the conflict remains unclear, with some reports stating it began on Feb. 28 and others indicating the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for about a month, according to multiple reports.