Orbán Concedes as Tisza Wins Hungarian Election

Hungarians voted in parliamentary elections on April 12, 2024, in what major media sources describe as the country's most important election since Orbán's current reign began in 2010. With 45% of votes counted, Tisza is set to win 132 of the 199 parliamentary seats, according to multiple reports, while Fidesz is set to lose its majority in the National Assembly. Viktor Orbán conceded defeat and congratulated the Tisza party, stating in an official statement that he congratulated the victorious party and they would serve from opposition. This outcome marks a dramatic shift after voters rejected Orbán's authoritarian policies in favor of a pro-European challenger, multiple reports indicate.

Péter Magyar and his Tisza party have promised 'a change of regime', a reset of relations with the EU, and an end to close relations with Russia, according to Magyar and the party. Magyar pledged to rebuild Hungary's relationships with the EU and NATO, and his party campaigned against corruption and to get Hungary's EU support fully restored. However, Magyar is also opposed to EU membership for Ukraine and sending weapons to Ukraine, a stance that creates a contradiction with his promise to end close relations with Russia. This raises questions about his foreign policy consistency and whether his government will significantly alter Hungary's stance on Ukraine and Russia.

Polling data consistently showed Tisza's lead in the run-up to the election. Hungary's most reliable pollsters point to a 'huge lead' for Tisza, according to election specialist Róbert László. A Medián poll showed Tisza leads 58% to 35% among likely voters with a party preference, with the 11-point difference exceeding the margin of error, according to research. The 21 Research Institute calculated Tisza would secure 129 seats, Fidesz 64 seats, and the far-right Our Homeland Movement 6 seats if elections were held at the time of the poll. Several independent polls show Tisza with a lead, while government-friendly research institutes publish numbers more favorable to Fidesz, multiple reports indicate, and Tisza has maintained a lead in polls over Fidesz since the start of 2025, according to two sources. Several opinion polls now show that Péter Magyar and his party Tisza lead significantly ahead of the election in April, official sources report, with the latest opinion poll indicating 55 percent of voters who have already decided would vote for Tisza this year, while Fidesz gets 35 percent. Just two days before the election, opposition leader Péter Magyar increased his lead in opinion polls, official sources note, and several other polls in recent weeks have shown Tisza not only catching up with Fidesz, but pulling ahead, research suggests.

The election result ends a period of democratic backsliding under Orbán's rule. Viktor Orbán has been Prime Minister of Hungary for 16 years, multiple reports state, and since 2010, he and his party Fidesz have had a stable majority in parliament, according to official sources. Orbán has governed Hungary in an increasingly autocratic direction, with worsening press freedom and judicial independence, multiple reports indicate. Fidesz has systematically shifted power away from institutions that a normal parliamentary majority could easily steer, multiple reports note. The European Parliament stated in September 2022 that Hungary no longer meets the criteria of a functioning democracy but is a 'hybrid regime of electoral autocracy'. Orbán's long dominance of Budapest politics has infuriated the EU establishment, research suggests.

Corruption allegations and scandals plagued Orbán's government in its final years. Hungary is repeatedly at the bottom of Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, multiple reports state. Recent revelations showed a top member of Orbán's government frequently shared EU discussions with Moscow, multiple reports indicate, and Hungary leaks information to Russia from EU meetings, according to the Washington Post. Magyar accused the government of widespread corruption in a Facebook post. A particularly grave scandal within Fidesz in February was an early sign of trouble, research indicates, as key figures from Fidesz — including a president, a justice minister, and a high-ranking clergyman — were revealed to have played leading roles in pardoning an aide to a pedophile director of a children's home, research notes.

Economic discontent and voter dissatisfaction fueled the shift against Fidesz. Many Hungarians are dissatisfied with the stagnating economy and increased living costs, multiple reports indicate. According to a survey by Medián, 70 percent of Hungarian voters say that in 2024 they are worse off than the year before. Hungarians' discontent is growing over the cost of living, frustration with rich elites, and a pardon issued in a high-profile pedophile scandal, research suggests. Right after the 2022 elections, huge welfare cuts were made alongside tax increases to tackle the budget deficit, research notes. Claims about a fantastic year ring hollow after hearing the same for 2023 and 2024, with the economic crisis yet to be overcome, research adds, referencing a government statement that '2025 will be a fantastic year.'

Péter Magyar's rapid rise from obscurity to victory is a central story of the election. Magyar grew from a virtually unknown figure to the biggest threat to Fidesz in two years, according to two sources. He burst into prominence in 2024 during a presidential pardon scandal involving a child abuser's accomplice, two sources report. Magyar's interview with Partizán played a major role in his fast-growing popularity, two sources note. Magyar won a seat as MEP in the 2024 European Parliament elections, with Tisza finishing second, two sources state.

Orbán's foreign alliances and tensions with the EU defined his final years in power. Orbán is highly valued by US President Donald Trump, who called on Hungarians to vote for his 'true friend, fighter, and WINNER', multiple reports indicate. Orbán has vetoed €90bn in EU aid to Ukraine, multiple reports state. Orbán aligns with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need for the West to keep out of the Ukraine war, research suggests, and aligns with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's MAGA-style mantras on national sovereignty, research notes.

Fidesz's campaign tactics relied on ideological positioning to maintain support. Fidesz has built its campaigns around stressing traditional family values while attacking the 'ungodly' West, research indicates.

The election result may give Tisza significant power to reshape Hungary's institutions. The result may give Tisza a two-thirds supermajority, allowing constitutional changes, according to two sources.

International reactions highlighted the democratic significance of the outcome. The crowd chanted 'Russians, go home' during Magyar's victory speech, according to two sources. Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said the election victory is a major victory for democracy and a setback for illiberal forces in Europe.

Uncertainties remain about the final official vote count and seat distribution for Tisza and Fidesz, which will determine the precise balance of power in parliament. It is also unclear whether Tisza will achieve a two-thirds supermajority to reverse Fidesz's constitutional changes, a key factor in reshaping Hungary's institutions.

Further unknowns surround how Magyar's government will specifically address corruption and restore EU relations, given his mixed signals on foreign policy. The impact of the election result on Hungary's veto of EU aid to Ukraine is yet to be seen, as Magyar opposes weapons shipments but promises an EU reset. Additionally, how Orbán and Fidesz will operate as an opposition party after 16 years in power remains an open question, marking a new chapter in Hungarian politics.