Most polls suggest Orbán and his Fidesz party could lose power, with the centre-right Tisza party widening its lead over the ruling Fidesz. According to a poll conducted by 21 Research Centre, Tisza, led by former government insider Péter Magyar, had the support of 56 percent of decided voters, up from 53 percent in early March, while 37 percent backed Fidesz, down from 39 percent three weeks ago. The same poll, published by the news site 24.hu, showed 40 percent support for Tisza among all voters, with Fidesz backed by 28 percent, and 26 percent of respondents did not know who to back. Another poll, conducted by Zavecz Research and published on Tuesday, showed that Tisza widened its lead to 13 points among decided voters from 12 points in a February poll, with 51 percent of voters supporting Tisza, up from 50 percent in February, while 38 percent backed Fidesz, unchanged from a month earlier.
The poll by 21 Research Centre was conducted between March 23 and 28 with a sample size of 1,500, while the survey by Zavecz Research was conducted between March 24 and 28 with a sample size of 1,000 people, and Zavecz Research said that 20 percent of respondents were undecided. Both the 21 Research Centre and Zavecz Research are independent of political parties and gathered responses by phone calls and online questionnaires. While most polls have shown a Tisza lead, Fidesz points to other surveys that still show it on course to victory, though its opponents say these have mainly been conducted by institutes with financial or personal ties to the ruling party. According to a poll analysed by Politico, Tisza currently has a 6-point lead over Fidesz, down from 10 points at the start of this year, and the analysis suggested that Tisza started to gain popularity in November 2024.
The zebras became a symbol of corruption.
Opinion polls put Magyar ahead, but the electoral system is complex and districts have been redrawn to favor Fidesz, with some calculating that Tisza needs a six-point lead in the national vote to secure a parliamentary majority. Hungarian elections are decidedly unfair, since they are structured to give the incumbent government so many advantages that the opposition should be almost incapable of winning, and the government's advantage begins with the nature of the elections. In such a system, voters are free to cast ballots for the candidates, making the European nation different from Russia under President Vladimir Putin, but the exact margin of victory Tisza needs to secure a parliamentary majority given the complex electoral system remains unclear.
During Orbán's 16 years in power, he has driven Hungary in an increasingly authoritarian direction, and Hungary is no longer considered a liberal democracy. The prime minister controls media, judiciary, and academia, and the country is thoroughly corrupt, but with a ruined economy, patience seems to be running out. Under Orbán, Hungary has become a paradigmatic example of a very modern kind of autocracy: one political scientists call 'competitive authoritarianism.'
Hungary stands at a historic crossroads and the election is a referendum on whether Hungary returns to European values.
Hungary has become a geopolitical hotspot where the interests of great powers converge in Europe, and Viktor Orbán has close ties to Putin, consistently opposes the EU, and puts up sharp barbed wire at borders rather than welcoming people in need. Orbán has been a thorn in the side of the EU and a favorite of Donald Trump, and he has a good relationship with several European right-wing nationalist leaders and the Trump administration. Viktor Orbán first accepted and then refused to pass through a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, causing unusual chaos in Brussels, and his fate can be decided in the commuter belt around Budapest, with much depending on Ukraine.
Viktor Orbán and Péter Magyar have traded accusations of enlisting foreign interference in the election, with Orbán alleging on social media that Magyar and Tisza are colluding with foreign intelligence and threatening Fidesz supporters with violence. Orbán is the EU's most Moscow-friendly leader, and recent allegations of Russian interference have prompted outrage, with Russia running disinformation campaigns in the election, and the Kremlin's support for Orbán has become clearer during the campaign. Government spokespeople have portrayed leaks about Budapest's close ties with Moscow as evidence of foreign interference, though the extent to which alleged foreign interference, particularly from Russia, will impact the election outcome is unknown.
Orbán's rule is a 'coup in slow motion'.
Opposition supporters fear polls underestimate support for Fidesz or that Orbán will find a way to retain power even if he loses, and Péter Magyar accused Fidesz of election fraud, criminal acts, intelligence operations, disinformation, and fake news. According to The Guardian - Main UK, Péter Magyar described Orbán as someone who will be removed by millions of Hungarians he has abandoned and betrayed.
Ahead of the election in Hungary, all focus is directed at a decisive group – about half a million voters who have not yet decided, and the outcome of the polls remains uncertain due to many undecided voters and accusations that Orbán might turn the polls in his favor. How many undecided voters will ultimately support Fidesz versus Tisza is a key unknown that could sway the result.
Orbán will be removed by millions of Hungarians he has abandoned and betrayed.
The government rewrote election laws to its benefit, put loyalists in control of an estimated 80 percent of media, and retooled the judiciary, consolidating Orbán's grip on institutions. According to The Guardian - Main UK, Zoltán Kész, a former Fidesz member, described Orbán's rule as a 'coup in slow motion.'
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán must fight for his political survival according to measurements, but he is clear that his party Fidesz is heading toward victory and another term in power. The leaders of the two political parties competing for voter favor in Hungary accuse each other of subterfuge ahead of the parliamentary elections on Sunday.
I am convinced that Orbán is considering a plan B in the event of an election loss, and I would not be surprised if there is some backlash for democracy after the election.
After the election, Hungary's parliament, which today has a two-thirds majority for Fidesz, can remain seated for up to a month, and Anders Blomqvist, a Hungary expert and university lecturer in history at Dalarna University, says that after the election, Hungary's parliament could give Orbán a window to retain power even in the event of a loss. According to SVT Nyheter, Anders Blomqvist described being convinced that Orbán is considering a plan B in the event of an election loss, and that he would not be surprised if there is some backlash for democracy after the election, though what specific constitutional changes Orbán could pursue if he loses remains unclear.
The election comes 23 years to the day after Hungarians voted to join the EU, highlighting the historical context of Hungary's relationship with Europe. According to The Guardian - Main UK, Anita Orbán, an opposition Tisza party member, described Hungary as standing at a historic crossroads and the election as a referendum on whether Hungary returns to European values.
Drone footage showed a sprawling residence in northern Hungary belonging to the father of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and zebras were seen on a neighboring property belonging to Orbán's best friend and Hungary's richest man, Lőrinc Mészáros. According to The Guardian - Main UK, Ákos Hadházy, an independent MP, described the zebras as a symbol of corruption.
Polling trends indicate volatility, with Tisza's lead fluctuating, and the analysis by Politico noted a narrowing gap from earlier in the year. Poll of Polls aggregates voting intention data from external polling firms, but may exclude polls that don't meet criteria on sample size, methodology, and/or transparency on funding and commissions, and polls are added as they become available, but displayed by fieldwork date, meaning that the projections can change as more polls are added.
Comparative analysis shows that Hungary's political system allows for electoral competition but with significant structural biases, distinguishing it from fully authoritarian regimes. The government's manipulation of electoral rules and media control creates a tilted playing field, even as voters retain the formal right to choose.