Hungary's parliamentary election is scheduled for April 12, 2024, with the opposition party Tisza, led by Péter Magyar, leading in opinion polls ahead of the vote, according to multiple reports. Russia has been deploying assets to boost Orbán's chances in the election, according to numerous allegations, setting the stage for a contentious political battle. This election could determine Hungary's future alignment within the EU and NATO, as Orbán seeks to extend his party's 16-year rule, a tenure confirmed by major media sources.
Viktor Orbán is the EU's most pro-Russian leader and has made criticism of Ukraine a key pillar of his election campaign, as reported by multiple sources. The Hungarian government has maintained warm relations with Russia despite the full-scale war in Ukraine, according to research, and Budapest blocked the EU's 20th package of sanctions against Russia and the bloc's 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine over the suspension of operations of the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline, based on research findings. These actions have strained Hungary's ties with the EU, positioning Orbán as a disruptive force in European unity against Russian aggression.
This is another example of disinformation.
To help him, Russian intelligence has floated a drastic proposal—a staged assassination attempt, according to documents that The Washington Post has accessed. It involves a report produced by the Russian SVR that a European intelligence service has obtained, the newspaper writes, where a fake assassination attempt on Orbán is described as a way to completely shift the focus in the election campaign to issues like security and stability, according to an official source. It is unclear whether the report has been presented at a higher level in Moscow, as noted by officials, leaving open questions about its operational status and potential implementation.
Russia's embassy in Budapest is reportedly serving as a Kremlin-run part-time command center for Hungary's election campaign, according to investigative journalists and leaks from a session in the Hungarian parliament. In collaboration with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, his government, and his Fidesz party, the Kremlin is reportedly organizing smear campaigns against opposition candidate Peter Magyar, based on the same sources. A three-person team of 'political technologists' traveled to Hungary to help Orbán secure another election victory, according to Szabolcs Panyi citing European intelligence sources, with the Russian operatives reportedly working under the supervision of Sergey Kiriyenko, deputy head of the presidential administration, and their task is to organize a social media campaign targeting Magyar and his Tisza Party, as per those sources.
Péter Magyar called for an investigation into the alleged leaks, stating it could amount to treason.
Russia is sending social media specialists to Hungary to meddle in the April elections in favor of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, according to VSquare citing three undisclosed European national security sources. The three-member team would be working from the Russian Embassy in Budapest on behalf of the military intelligence agency (GRU), shielded by diplomatic immunity, VSquare reports, and the Russian team has arrived in Budapest weeks ago, but it remains unclear whether they have started their activity. Sergei Kiriyenko has reportedly been tasked with overseeing the Russian operation in Hungary, applying methods used in Moldovan elections, according to VSquare, and Kiriyenko's task force is in active contact with campaign operatives connected to Orbán's government, an undisclosed Central European source claims, while Russian dictator Vladimir Putin instructed Sergey Kiriyenko to 'deal with' Hungary, based on a VSquare investigation.
A false claim that Péter Magyar plans to reintroduce military conscription in Hungary has spread online, linked by researchers to a Russian disinformation campaign. Fidesz has echoed the false claim that Magyar is pushing for forced conscription, according to major media sources, and researchers at the Gnida Project linked the conscription disinformation to Storm-1516, a Russian propagandist group. Russia has used disinformation campaigns, including through hacker groups and propaganda, to support Fidesz and discredit the opposition, analysts and reports indicate, highlighting a pattern of information warfare aimed at swaying voter sentiment.
Szijjártó denied the allegations as 'fake news'.
Fidesz is accused of mass voter intimidation, including offering money and illegal drugs to pressure people to vote for them, as alleged in the documentary film 'The Price of the Vote'. Fidesz targets rural and small-town communities, where local mayors exercise control over daily lives in exchange for votes, according to claims made in the film, and the Fidesz government declared a 'war on drugs', leading to police raids on Budapest's nightlife and clubs, as reported by major media. Police raids are selective and target events critical of the government, according to an anonymous source named Anna, suggesting these tactics may be used to suppress dissent and influence the electoral process.
Hungarian rights groups raised concerns over the appointment of Vladimir Putin's former interpreter, Daria Boyarskaya, to a key role in an OSCE election monitoring mission in Hungary. The European Commission demanded clarifications from Hungary over the alleged leaks of confidential EU information to Russia, and Viktor Orbán ordered an investigation into the alleged wiretapping of Foreign Minister Szijjártó. A group of MEPs urged the European Commission to investigate whether Hungary's elections are being undermined by Russian manipulation, intimidation of journalists, and voter coercion by Fidesz, reflecting growing international scrutiny.
Orbán threatened to use force to break what he called a Ukrainian oil blockade.
Hungary's foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, routinely updated his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, with details of confidential EU meetings, as reported by the Washington Post. Russia sees Hungary as a key asset within the EU and NATO, and has actively supported Fidesz in past elections, according to analyst András Rácz, underscoring the strategic importance of Hungarian alignment for Moscow's geopolitical interests.
Several Ukrainian state bank employees were detained in Hungary while transporting cash shipments from Austria, according to research, and Budapest and Bratislava have called for a joint inspection of the damaged Druzhba pipeline with EU participation, based on research findings. According to kyivindependent.com, Viktor Orbán described threatening to use force to break what he called a Ukrainian oil blockade, while according to kyivindependent.com, Volodymyr Zelensky described hinting he would ask the Ukrainian army to talk to Orbán 'in their own language' and does not favor restoring the Druzhba pipeline, highlighting escalating tensions between Hungary and Ukraine over energy infrastructure.
President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted he would ask the Ukrainian army to talk to Orbán 'in their own language' and does not favor restoring the Druzhba pipeline.
U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed support for Orbán's party, according to major media sources, providing international political backing that could influence the election dynamics. Viktor Orbán's anti-Ukrainian narratives strengthen the cover for Russian propagandists, according to authors of an investigation, suggesting his rhetoric aligns with broader Kremlin objectives to undermine Western unity.
The Kremlin has been accused of deploying troll farms, disinformation, and vote-buying networks in Moldovan elections, based on research, and Kiriyenko is behind Russian interference in the 2024 presidential elections in Moldova to prevent pro-European President Maia Sandu from winning, according to a VSquare investigation. This pattern indicates that Russian tactics in Hungary may be part of a broader strategy to influence elections across Eastern Europe, leveraging similar methods to support pro-Russian candidates and destabilize democratic processes.
Key unknowns persist, including whether the Russian intelligence report proposing a staged assassination attempt on Orbán has been presented at a higher level in Moscow, and whether the three-person Russian team of 'political technologists' has started their activity in Hungary. The full extent and impact of alleged Russian disinformation campaigns and voter intimidation by Fidesz on the election outcome remain unclear, as do the veracity of allegations that Hungary's foreign minister leaked confidential EU information to Russia. The specific methods and scale of collaboration between Russian operatives and Orbán's Fidesz party in the election campaign are also not fully known, leaving gaps in understanding the depth of foreign interference. Multiple media and research sources allege Russian interference, while Russian officials deny it; Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that these are examples of disinformation, highlighting the central dispute over foreign influence in the election, with implications for its legitimacy and Hungary's geopolitical alignment.