Heineken, the world's second-largest brewer behind Anheuser-Busch InBev, reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter revenues and volumes, defying forecasts of flat performance. Total volumes grew by 1.2% organically, according to multiple reports, while net revenue (beia) organic growth was up 0.9%. However, the company's Q1 2025 revenue was €7,784 million, decreasing 4.9% from the prior year, as strong performance in Asia Pacific helped offset declines in beer sales in Europe and the Americas, including the US, Brazil, and Mexico. The results come as Heineken was already bracing for a challenging year amid cost-of-living pressures, evolving consumer drinking habits, and US tariffs.
The company warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up the cost of essential brewing fuels and glass bottles. Dolf van den Brink, Heineken's CEO, said in a press conference that global trade has become more complex and volatile, with impacts on energy availability and costs in certain markets, leading to inflationary pressures that might affect consumer sentiment in the medium-term. Oil prices have risen by about $10 a barrel since the latest conflict, according to research from multiple sources. LNG prices rose almost 60% since the start of the war, according to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler. Additionally, QatarEnergy suspended LNG production after an Iranian drone attack on March 2, 2025, according to multiple reports.
Global trade has become more complex and volatile, with impacts on energy availability and costs in certain markets. This leads to inflationary pressures, which might affect consumer sentiment in the medium-term.
Oil prices surged after US-Israeli strikes on Iran, with Brent crude at $106 per barrel on March 16, 2025, according to research from multiple sources. However, there is a massive discrepancy in reported oil prices after the same event: CNN reported US oil surged 7.26% to $72.98 per barrel and Brent gained 7% to $74.23 per barrel on the same day (Friday after the attack). This could be due to different dates (2025 vs. 2026) or different benchmarks. Oil prices later pulled back below $95 a barrel on March 16, 2026, after Trump called for efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple reports. The US is considering joining Israel in military action against Iran, according to market interpretation. US stocks fell, with Dow down 770 points (1.79%), S&P 500 down 1.13%, and Nasdaq down 1.3%, while gold rose about 1.4% to $3,433 per troy ounce. Asian markets opened higher on March 17, 2026, tracking Wall Street's rebound.
Despite the headwinds, Heineken's full-year outlook is unchanged, with operating profit (beia) expected to grow organically 4% to 8%, according to Heineken Holding N.V. However, there is a contradiction: The Independent reported a range of 2% to 6% organic operating profit growth. This could be due to different definitions (organic vs. beia) or different timeframes. Heineken's outlook is based on the assumption of a temporary rather than a prolonged disruption in global trade, according to the company. Heineken's Q2 beer volume was down only 0.4% sequentially, according to CEO Dolf van den Brink, and the company expects better volumes in H2, especially in Europe. Heineken is using scenario-based planning and holding productivity savings in reserve, according to CFO Harold van den Broek.
reassuringly uneventful
Heineken is preparing to cut 6,000 jobs, according to multiple reports. The company is also seeking a new chief executive following Dolf van den Brink's unexpected departure in January, though Heineken did not address the CEO search in its latest results statement. Heineken said in January it had initiated a search to appoint his successor. The report is the last to be presented by van den Brink, who steps down on 31 May. Analysts reacted positively to the results; James Edwardes Jones of RBC Capital Markets described the quarter as "reassuringly uneventful" in a wire report.
Heineken is the world's second-largest brewer, behind Anheuser-Busch InBev. The company was already bracing for a challenging year amid cost-of-living pressures, evolving consumer drinking habits, and US tariffs. The exact date of the US-Israeli strikes on Iran remains unclear, with sources mentioning March 2025 and March 2026, creating confusion. The correct Heineken Q1 volume figure is also disputed: growth of 1.2% or decline of 2.1%? Similarly, the correct full-year operating profit growth outlook is either 2-6% or 4-8%. The successor to Dolf van den Brink as CEO has not been announced.