Goldman Sachs said four more weeks of closure would make a return to lower oil prices highly unlikely. The Strait of Hormuz has been shut to almost all exports for over a month, a vital lane through which a fifth of global seaborne oil transited before the conflict. Energy analysts have branded this closure one of the most severe supply shocks in modern history.
Iran agreed to reopen the strait as part of a two-week ceasefire with Washington on Tuesday. However, hours later, Iran barred tankers from passing through, blaming Israel for breaking the strike. Israel unleashed its largest strike on Lebanon since the war's onset shortly after the pact, claiming Lebanon was not included in the deal's terms.
The energy supply shortage was likely to cause very real economic hardship regardless of whether the strait was reopened permanently in the near future.
International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that all roads lead to higher oil prices and slower economic growth. SP Angel's David Mirzai said the energy supply shortage was likely to cause economic hardship regardless of whether the strait was reopened soon. Goldman Sachs' base-case outlook is for flows to get underway this weekend, rising to pre-war levels over the next month.
Under this scenario, Brent crude would fall to $82 a barrel in the third quarter, then to $80 for the last three months of 2026. On Thursday morning, Brent's spot price was $98, having fallen over 13 percent on the ceasefire news. Before the war started on 28 February, Brent crude was trading at $72 a barrel, higher than the $60 a barrel for much of 2025.
In a social media post, Donald Trump said opening the strait had been agreed long ago and warned the US would reengage militarily if Tehran did not comply fully.