A migration expert has warned that a new refugee wave could emerge following the war in Iran, potentially affecting the European Union. According to Bernd Parusel, a researcher and migration expert at the Swedish Institute for European Policy Studies (Sieps), while there are currently no indications of major refugee flows from the Iran conflict, the situation could develop rapidly depending on how events unfold.
Parusel drew parallels to the Syrian refugee crisis, noting that it took several years before the EU felt the full impact of the 2011 Syrian war, with asylum applications peaking in 2015. "So it could be the same now too. But it could also go faster, or slower," Parusel stated.
So it could be the same now too. But it could also go faster, or slower,
The expert highlighted the significant demographic difference between Iran and Syria, with Iran having over 90 million inhabitants compared to Syria's 26 million. If a similar proportion of people were to flee as during the Syrian war, it could involve several million people.
Parusel expressed concern about EU preparedness, stating, "If there is a new major refugee crisis in Iran that also affects the EU, I don't think the EU is prepared for it." He noted that most EU countries have tightened their asylum policies and that it's difficult for Iranians to reach the EU due to visa requirements.
If there is a new major refugee crisis in Iran that also affects the EU, I don't think the EU is prepared for it.
The expert suggested that the EU's response would likely involve increased support to countries along migration routes to prevent further movement, rather than large-scale reception within the EU itself. He also mentioned the possibility of activating the mass displacement directive used for Ukrainian refugees, but noted that the political will for such measures currently appears lacking.