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EU Seeks to Bypass Hungary for Ukraine Aid as War Intensifies

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EU Seeks to Bypass Hungary for Ukraine Aid as War Intensifies
Key Points
  • EU urgently seeks to bypass Hungary's block on €90 billion Ukraine loan, with Sweden leading the effort.
  • Hungary's obstruction is linked to upcoming elections and demands over Russian oil transit.
  • Ukraine faces dire military and financial challenges, including funding shortfalls and significant Russian advances.

Sweden's Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stated that Sweden is prepared to be a driving force in such a procedure. She emphasized that time is something Ukraine does not have and would like to see the EU look at all possible creative ways forward. The EU must find ways to bypass Hungary to pay out the decided 50 billion euro loan to Ukraine, according to major media reports. Stenergard was one of 12 foreign ministers from EU countries and other ministers and representatives of EU countries present in Bucha near Kyiv on Tuesday. The visit to Bucha was to honor the hundreds of civilians killed by Russian soldiers shortly after the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. The many civilian victims were discovered when Ukraine retook Bucha on April 1, 2022. Through their presence, they show solidarity with Ukraine and support and contribute to important political attention at a time when the Middle East is taking up more space, Stenergard said. They did not bring any new support package.

Hungary's obstruction extends beyond the emergency loan, with the latest sanctions package, the twentieth, also blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, according to major media reports. No one expects movement until after the Hungarian election on April 12. In the Hungarian election, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has a real challenger with a chance of victory for the first time in a long time, opposition leader Peter Magyar. Stenergard finds it hard to see that it would become more difficult if Magyar wins. Viktor Orbán will remain in office for at least a month if he loses. Hungary will block a €90 billion emergency loan for Ukraine until transit of Russian oil resumes through a damaged pipeline, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó declared. The southern leg of the Druzhba pipeline was damaged in January after being hit by a Russian strike, according to research from seven sources. Hungary negotiated an exemption from contributing financially to the €90 billion loan for Ukraine, research indicates.

Sweden is prepared to be a driving force in such a procedure.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

The Bucha ceremony also served as an opportunity to advance the issue of a tribunal for Russian aggression crimes against civilians, major media reports indicate. Sweden is supporting the establishment and contributing money to the tribunal. The government hopes that it will soon be in place in The Hague in the Netherlands. It will be the first time since Nuremberg that such a tribunal is established, Stenergard noted. It is important that it can start working as soon as possible, she added. Nuremberg refers to the tribunal established to hold leading Nazis accountable after World War II.

Ukraine's military and financial situation is dire. According to the news agency Bloomberg, Ukraine's war funds will run out in June. Deliveries of American weapons have also decreased, major media reports. Russian forces have suffered 299,210 casualties since January 2025, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi. Russian forces gained 1,910.39 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine in May, June, July, and August 2025, the Institute for the Study of War assesses. Russian forces suffered 130,160 casualties between May and August 2025, averaging 68 casualties per square kilometer seized, ISW reports. Russian casualty rates per square kilometer gained decreased over the last four months compared to January through April 2025. At current rates, combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties could reach 2 million by spring 2026, research from seven sources indicates.

Through their presence, they show solidarity with Ukraine and support and contribute to important political attention at a time when the Middle East is taking up more space.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

Russian military advances have been sustained through specific tactics and external support. Russian forces were frequently using armored vehicles to advance during Fall 2024, ISW assesses. In the first 11 months of 2024, ACLED records a 63% increase in average monthly battles in Ukraine compared to 2023, according to research from seven sources. Russia seized Avdiivka in February 2024 after a four-month-long siege. Russia launched an offensive toward Kharkiv in May 2024. Ukrainian forces invaded parts of Russia's Kursk region in August 2024. Russia has recommissioned thousands of armored vehicles from Soviet stocks. Russia has mitigated shortages of shells and missiles with imports from North Korea and Iran. Russia resumed bombing Ukraine's energy infrastructure by March 2024. Russian missile attacks deprived Ukraine of 80% of its thermal generation capacity. Russian forces have advanced at an average rate of between 15 and 70 meters per day in their most prominent offensives, research shows.

Suspicious Russian vessel activity in Norway has raised concerns about potential intelligence threats. In Kirkenes, Norway, there were eight Russian fishing trawlers docked, housing at least six hundred Russian sailors, according to research from seven sources. A Russian fish-processing vessel named Arka-33 had docked in Kirkenes weeks earlier and hadn't left. Arka-33 belongs to a Russian crab-fishing company whose CEO used to run at least two private security companies, according to the OpenSanctions database. The wife of the CEO of the crab-fishing company is a member of the Russian parliament and appears on various sanctions lists, research indicates. Arka-33 was moored in a position used by the Norwegian military's primary electronic-intelligence-collection vessel when it stops in Kirkenes. The Russian government declared that commercial vessels could be co-opted by the military for any purpose. Locals in Kirkenes noticed that Russian fishermen were younger than before the war and sometimes did physical-training exercises on deck.

Maria Malmer Stenergard finds it hard to see that it would become more difficult if Magyar wins.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

Disparities in European military and financial support for Ukraine are stark. Nordic countries, with less than 30 million people, provide one-third of the military support that NATO countries provide to Ukraine, Sweden's foreign minister Maria Malmer Stenergard stated. Denmark has contributed over €10 billion to Ukraine since 2022, equal to nearly 3% of its GDP, according to the Kiel Institute. Spain has given €1.48 billion to Ukraine, or less than 0.2% of its GDP. Hungary has contributed less than 0.04% of its GDP in aid to Ukraine.

The European Commission outlined three options for supporting Ukraine, including tapping €170 billion in frozen Russian assets, research from seven sources indicates. However, Belgium has refused to allow the EU to tap Russia's frozen assets held at Euroclear.

Time is something Ukraine does not have.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

Russia's war economy is under mounting strain, with manufacturing declining, slowing growth of 0.6 percent in 2025, and no globally competitive technology firms, according to research from seven sources.

She would like to see the EU look at all possible creative ways forward.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

It will be the first time since Nuremberg that such a tribunal is established.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

It is important that it can start working as soon as possible.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Foreign Minister

Sweden's Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard criticized Hungary's decision as illogical and frustrating.

Maria Malmer Stenergard, Sweden's Minister for Foreign Affairs
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