According to EU fisheries chief Costas Kadis, Europe's fisheries and aquaculture sectors are facing growing strain from geopolitical tensions and rising costs. Kadis emphasized that urgent support is needed to keep the European fisheries and aquaculture industry competitive, with challenges mounting and pointing to the impact of Middle East conflict on seafood markets, supply chains and coastal communities. He noted that some operators have already shut down due to thin margins and soaring fuel prices, and there's growing anxiety among EU governments as costs rise and markets remain volatile.
The European Commission is considering short-term support via the bloc's maritime funding tools, similar to measures introduced after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Europêche is urging the European Commission to consider the rapid activation of emergency support measures similar to those deployed during the 2022 energy crisis to address the fuel price surge. Kadis stated that a coordinated EU response and faster progress on energy transition are needed to reduce exposure to future shocks, adding that long-term resilience depends on cutting vulnerability to external crises.
They were barely profitable before. Now they simply can't absorb the extra costs.
The United States-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory strikes have upended global financial and energy markets, raising concerns of a global economic crisis, according to reports. Iranian attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz have dramatically reduced traffic in the channel, through which about 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies transit. The Strait of Hormuz carries around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers, with about 84 percent of the crude oil and 83 percent of the LNG that passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 bound for Asia.
Oil prices have soared, with Brent crude priced at $106 per barrel as of Monday morning, up more than 40 percent from $72 per barrel on February 27. Brent Crude oil prices have surged well above $100 per barrel due to the conflict. Liquified natural gas (LNG) prices have risen by almost 60 percent since the start of the war. QatarEnergy suspended its LNG production after an Iranian drone attack on March 2, straining the global LNG market.
There's real nervousness across the sector.
The immediate impact of the conflict includes sharp increases in transport costs, energy and fertilizer prices, alongside currency pressures and financial market volatility. UN estimates indicate oil prices have risen by around 45 percent and gas by 55 percent since late February, with fertilizer prices up 35 percent. These price spikes are compounding existing pressures on EU fisheries, with Kadis noting that operators were barely profitable before and now cannot absorb the extra costs.
Market forecasts present conflicting views on oil price stability. UBS does not expect the recent escalation between the US and Iran to last long, anticipating only short-term disruptions to global energy supplies. UOB expects oil prices to stabilize at $80 per barrel during Q2 and Q3 2026, despite the escalating conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East. Capital Economics highlighted that Gulf oil exports have alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, such as Saudi Arabia's pipeline to Yanbu with a capacity of 5 million barrels per day.
Things are improving. There have been no further incidents since the initial attack, and life is returning to normal.
Key unknowns affecting energy markets include the duration of the conflict, the extent of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and outages at key energy infrastructure. The full extent of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and whether alternative routes can fully compensate for reduced traffic remains uncertain. The exact duration of the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran and its long-term geopolitical resolution is also unclear.
European aquaculture production has stagnated or declined for over 25 years, while global aquaculture production continues to grow rapidly. Aquaculture production in the EU has not grown since 2018, with obstacles including lack of social acceptance and insufficient awareness. According to the organisations representing the sector, this stagnation highlights systemic challenges that predate the current crisis.
Commissioner Kadis stated that aquaculture is a top priority in his portfolio for food security and competitiveness, and key to reducing dependency on imported seafood.
European aquaculture organisations held talks with the commissioner responsible for fisheries and oceans to contribute to the EU's Vision for Aquaculture towards 2040. Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans Costas Kadis will host an event to launch an EU-wide campaign about aquaculture in the EU. At a press conference, Kadis stated that aquaculture is a top priority in his portfolio for food security and competitiveness, and key to reducing dependency on imported seafood.
The timeline and feasibility of achieving the EU's goal to increase aquaculture production by 25% by 2040 remains uncertain. The impact of the conflict on global seafood supply chains beyond immediate price increases, including long-term market shifts, is another unknown.
The revised fisheries control system is a major achievement, and we should not jeopardise it now.
European organisations are calling on the European Commission to urgently correct and recalibrate the implementation of the EU Fisheries Control Regulation, including the CATCH IT system. The EU fishing industry is deeply disappointed by the partial mackerel sharing arrangement agreed between the UK, Norway, the Faroe Islands and Iceland, with a total catch limit of 299,010 tonnes for 2026.
The draft EU-Indonesia agreement provides preferential market access for tuna, with fresh and frozen tuna fillets fully liberalized at 0% duty from entry into force and no quota, while processed tuna products are subject to tariff-rate quotas: 5,000 tonnes per year for tuna loins and 800 tonnes per year for cans, both duty-free within the quota only. Preferential access in the EU-Indonesia agreement is conditional on strict rules of origin, meaning only tuna caught by Indonesian vessels, or by EU vessels and processed in Indonesia, can benefit.
The situation in Cyprus has stabilized after recent security concerns linked to the Iran conflict. Some EU Council presidency events were postponed during the unrest, but business is expected to resume as usual from April.
Representatives of the European blue economy value chain met with Commissioner Costas Kadis to discuss the forthcoming Roadmap for the Energy Transition of Fisheries. On Monday 30 March, the European Commission will update the European Fisheries Ministers on the conclusions of a dialogue on small-scale and coastal fisheries organised on 24 November 2025. The specific short-term support measures the European Commission will activate for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors and their effectiveness remains to be determined.