Guelleh, 78, has ruled Djibouti for more than two decades, and the results of the 2021 election showed him winning nearly 99% of the vote. He faces Mohamed Farah Samatar, a former ruling party member, in a race that analysts say offers little genuine competition. Opposition groups frequently boycott elections, citing restrictions on political freedoms, and critics describe the system as tightly controlled. Lawmakers scrapped presidential age limits last year, a move that authorities point to as ensuring stability in a volatile region. According to The Independent - Main, Mohamed Husein Gaas described the scrapping of term limits as less about electoral competition and more about preserving regime continuity in a highly strategic state.
Djibouti hosts multiple foreign military bases, including those of the U.S., China, France, and Japan. Revenues from these bases and port services for neighboring Ethiopia underpin Djibouti's economy, but this model leaves it exposed to external shocks, including dependence on Ethiopia's use of its ports and global disruptions like Red Sea shipping insecurity. Rising geopolitical competition and debt exposure, particularly to China, add to longer-term uncertainty for Djibouti. According to The Independent - Main, Mohamed Husein Gaas described that while it raises concerns about democratic backsliding, external actors are likely to prioritize stability given Djibouti's critical role in Red Sea security and global trade routes, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The scrapping of term limits in Djibouti is less about electoral competition and more about preserving regime continuity in a highly strategic state.
Guelleh succeeded his uncle, former President Hassan Gouled Aptidon, in 1999. Regional observers from the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development monitored the vote. The official results of the presidential election and voter turnout have not been confirmed, and it is unclear what specific restrictions on political freedoms opposition groups cite for boycotting. Additionally, the amount of debt Djibouti owes to China and the immediate economic impacts of Red Sea shipping insecurity on its revenue remain unknown.
While it raises concerns about democratic backsliding, external actors are likely to prioritize stability given Djibouti's critical role in Red Sea security and global trade routes, especially amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East.