Republicans currently hold a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, allowing Trump to largely act unchecked. Democrats have flagged that they are ready to make life difficult for Trump if they regain control of both chambers. According to reports in the American press, Democrats have already quietly begun work to immediately launch investigations against Trump in the House if there is a power shift there, though such investigations would not lead to much if Republicans retain their Senate majority. A power shift in the House is seen as a clear possibility.
For Democrats to regain control of the Senate after the midterm elections, everything must go the party's way. In recent polls, Democrats are leading or tied with Republicans in four states controlled by the latter party: Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Alaska. Republicans may be in danger in two states where Trump himself won the presidential election with double-digit victory margins: Texas and Iowa. Republicans retaining their majority in the Senate had been seen as essentially certain, but now the conditions appear to have changed. Right now, everything is going the party's way, writes The New York Times. In an analysis of opinion polls in states with Senate elections in November, the newspaper concludes it is not impossible for Democrats to win the four Senate seats from Republicans required to change the majority. In recent weeks, betting markets have swung so that the Senate is now seen as completely uncertain, although some analysts have not gone quite that far.
Trump's national approval ratings show 40% think he is doing a good job and 56% think he is doing a bad job. His approval ratings are lower than at the 2018 midterm elections when Democrats had major successes in Congress. Trump is leading an unpopular war against Iran. It is not President Trump himself who is reportedly the Republicans' biggest problem.