Sweden's central bank, Riksbanken, is maintaining its policy rate at 1.75 percent but signaling heightened readiness to raise interest rates if inflation accelerates, according to reports from March 27, 2026. Vice Riksbank Governor Anna Seim stated she is "significantly more concerned about inflation becoming too high than too low," citing the Middle East war and rising energy prices as risks that could drive up production costs and disrupt global supply networks.
Danske Bank economists have released a new forecast predicting three interest rate hikes by August 2026. They expect Riksbanken to raise the policy rate to 2.00 percent in May, followed by increases to 2.50 percent by August. The forecast cites energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions resulting from the Iran war and the closed Hormuz Strait as factors expected to have noticeable inflation effects.
significantly more concerned about inflation becoming too high than too low
According to Danske Bank's main scenario, the policy rate would then remain at 2.50 percent until the end of 2027, before being lowered again to 2.00 percent at the beginning of 2028. Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen has reportedly expressed concerns about potential stagflation scenarios, while Vice Governor Per Jansson noted that historical inflation outcomes must now be viewed in a new light.