The current risk stems from damage to the New Safe Confinement structure, a high-tech metal dome built in November 2016 at a cost of €1.5 billion to reinforce the site. According to Greenpeace, a potential collapse of the internal radiation shelter could risk a release of radioactivity into the environment. Shaun Burnie, senior nuclear specialist for Greenpeace Ukraine, warned that the lack of full restoration increases this risk, especially if the internal structure fails. Burnie noted there are four tonnes of highly radioactive dust, fuel pellets, and enormous amounts of radioactivity inside the sarcophagus. He added that because the New Safe Confinement cannot be repaired at the moment and cannot function as designed, there is a possibility of radioactive releases.
This situation unfolds at the site of the historic Chernobyl disaster, which occurred on 26 April 1986 when a reactor at the plant exploded, contaminating a vast area spanning Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. According to reports, the disaster happened at 01:23 when something went wrong in reactor four, leading to an explosion that blew off the 1,000-ton reactor lid known as 'Elena', allowing flames and smoke to spread radioactive material into the sky and across Europe. Several safety systems in the nuclear power plant were shut down for tests at the time, so a minor incident in reactor four quickly became large.
If a rocket will drop, not directly into the safe confinement, but just in 200 meters, it will create an external impact like an earthquake.
After the 1986 catastrophe, an inner steel-and-concrete structure, known as the sarcophagus, was built around the destroyed reactor to prevent further radiation leaks. The New Safe Confinement was later constructed to reinforce this inner shell. However, this protective system has been compromised by recent military threats. Kyiv has repeatedly accused Russia of targeting the power plant since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. A Russian drone struck the outer shell of the Chernobyl plant in February last year. The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed in December that the drone impact had degraded the steel structure and that it no longer blocked radiation.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said an inspection confirmed the protective structure had lost its primary safety functions, including confinement capability, but found no permanent damage to its load-bearing structures or monitoring systems. Grossi added that while some repairs had taken place, comprehensive restoration remains essential to prevent further degradation and ensure long-term nuclear safety. Greenpeace reported that despite some repair efforts, the protective shield has not yet been fully restored.
And what actually 1986 accident showed to us ... that the radioactive particles, they do not recognize borders.
Funding estimates for necessary repairs are substantial. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot estimated last month that the dome required almost €500 million in repairs. Experts warn that the deconstruction of unstable elements of the inner shell is crucial to prevent an uncontrolled collapse. According to Daily Express - Main, Tarakanov described that if a rocket drops within 200 meters of the safe confinement, it will create an external impact like an earthquake, increasing the risk of the inner shell collapsing.
The broader implications of a potential radioactive release are significant. According to Daily Express - Main, Tarakanov described that the 1986 accident showed that radioactive particles do not recognize borders. This highlights the transnational risk posed by any failure at the site.