Major media sources reported complete confusion about what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday evening. Iranian state TV reported that the strait is completely closed, and the BBC reported that ships received a warning message from the IRGC stating the strait is closed to all traffic and any vessel attempting to pass will be destroyed. However, Iran's Revolutionary Guard declared that the strait remained under Iran's 'full control' and was open to non-military vessels, while military ones would receive a 'forceful response'. This disagreement creates uncertainty for shipping and global energy markets, as it affects whether vessels can safely transit the strait.
Immediate impacts are severe, with Iranian media reporting that oil tankers have stopped passing through the Strait of Hormuz after the IRGC warning. Research indicates the warnings and attacks caused a sharp decline in maritime transit, with tanker traffic dropping first by approximately 70% and over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks, soon afterwards dropping to about zero. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), prompting major shipping firms to suspend operations in the area.
The conflict began following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran since February 28, which included the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response to the strikes, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases, Israeli territory, and Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since 28 February 2026, following these actions, with the U.S. and Israel having attacked several thousand targets in Iran and Iran responding by closing the strait and attacking small states in the Gulf region.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is unclear and unpredictable, and it is not clear under what conditions safe transit can be carried out.
The U.S. military response includes a planned blockade, with U.S. Central Command announcing it will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on April 13 at 10 a.m. EDT. The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. The U.S. military confirmed that two destroyers had passed through the strait ahead of mine-clearing operations, marking a first since the war began.
Iran's military actions and threats have escalated, with the IRGC saying on their Sepah News website that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed' to vessels travelling to and from enemy ports and that it had turned back three ships seeking to cross. Iran's Revolutionary Guards emphasized that Iran will not let 'one liter of oil' through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced it will increase the power and frequency of its missile launches and extend their range. Iran's Revolutionary Guards urged civilians across the Middle East on Friday to stay away from areas near U.S. forces.
Diplomatic developments are murky, with major media sources reporting a breakthrough in negotiations occurred overnight to Wednesday, with the U.S. and Iran agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. However, this contradicts other reports, as the Iranian leadership strictly rejects any negotiations, leaving the diplomatic status unclear and impacting assessments of conflict resolution and market stability. Negotiations revolve around a 15-point U.S. 'action list', relayed via Pakistan, to which Tehran has reportedly replied, but the specific terms of any agreement remain unknown. Trump extended a deadline for Tehran to open the Strait of Hormuz or face destruction of its energy assets, pushing it from Friday to 6 April.
No payments have been made so far, as far as they have seen.
Regional attacks on U.S. allies have intensified, with Kuwait saying its main commercial port was damaged in a drone attack at dawn. A fuel tanker fire is described as a major blaze at Kuwait International Airport after a drone attack Wednesday morning. Fires are reported in Bahrain after an attack, and Saudi Arabia reports several drones were intercepted. Several U.S. allies in the region are attacked almost daily by drones and rockets from Iran.
Economic consequences are profound, with oil prices and stocks mixed Friday after Trump pushed back his ultimatum for Iran to lift its choke on Hormuz shipping. Amid fears of prolonged supply shortages, oil prices surged faster than during any other conflict in recent history; Brent crude oil prices surpassed US$100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years, rising to US$126 per barrel at its peak. The closure of the strait has been described as the largest disruption to the energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis, as well as the largest in the history of the global oil market. Other commodity markets to suffer price increases from the crisis include aluminum, fertilizer, and helium.
Legal and strategic implications are significant, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz constitutes a violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea by denying transit in a strait used for international navigation. Until the beginning of the conflict at the end of February, around 20 million barrels of crude oil and oil products were passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day - around 20% of total global demand. The Strait of Hormuz also accounted for around 20% of the 410 million tonnes of LNG shipped around the world globally, and around 20% of seaborne traffic in urea, ammonia, sulphur and other fertilizer-related commodities. Since the war between Iran and the U.S. broke out about six weeks ago, Iran's national security committee approved a bill to introduce fees in the strait.
The strait is still effectively closed and Norwegian ships will not pass through immediately.
Iran has tactical advantages, with research indicating it has surprised the US by disabling much of its radar and advanced warning capability, allowing it to continue attacking ships and facilities in the region with missiles and drones, and to begin mining the crucial waterway. As of 12 March 2026, Iran has made 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships. US President Donald Trump announced his intent to seize control of the Strait of Hormuz on 9 March and later warned Iran to not lay mines in the body of water, but the number of mines laid and by whom remains unknown.
Recent developments include local media confirming fresh strikes in Tehran, Qom, and Urmia after Israel's military announced 'wide-scale' hits on infrastructure. Tehran emphasized that only the country itself will determine when the war ends. On 27 March, the IRGC announced that the strait is closed to any vessel going 'to and from' the ports of the US, Israel, and their allies.
Corporate and technological dimensions involve state media reporting that the Revolutionary Guard has a list of 18 companies, including Microsoft, Meta, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, Tesla, and Boeing. According to NRK Urix, Knut Arild Hareide, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners' Association, described that no payments have been made so far, as far as they have seen, regarding any tolls.
They are aware that mines have been laid, but the number is very limited as far as they know.
U.S. political context shows Trump had promised a quick end to the war against Iran to calm tensions. On 19 March 2026, the United States Armed Forces began a military campaign to open the strait, but its effectiveness remains unclear.
Current unknowns include the specific terms of the reported U.S.-Iran agreement to open the strait for two weeks, the details of the 15-point U.S. 'action list' in negotiations, and the current status of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The number of mines laid in the strait and by whom is also not confirmed, and the effectiveness of the U.S. military campaign to open the strait since March 19 is uncertain.
Recent market movements show Brent futures down 14.6%, WTI down 16%, and the TTF index drops around 20%, according to research. A Russian-flagged tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz in a rare transit amid the conflict. According to NRK Urix, Knut Arild Hareide described that the strait is still effectively closed and Norwegian ships will not pass through immediately, and noted they are aware that mines have been laid, but the number is very limited as far as they know.
The situation remains a stalemate with global implications, as the closure of the strait has been described as the largest disruption to the energy supply since the 1970s energy crisis. Oil prices and stocks were mixed Friday after Trump pushed back his ultimatum, reflecting ongoing volatility.