The Climate Policy Council, an interdisciplinary expert body tasked with providing independent assessments of government policy compatibility with national climate targets, presented its evaluation of the Tidö parties' climate policy during the entire mandate period on Thursday. The council consists of members with high scientific competence in climate, climate policy, economics, social sciences, and behavioral sciences. Its mandate includes ensuring that the government's policies align with climate goals, submitting annual progress reports on emission trends, and assessing the government's climate policy action plan three months after its submission. The council also aims to contribute to increased societal discussion about climate policy, functioning as a critical watchdog for Sweden's environmental commitments.
Specific failures highlighted in the report show the gap to climate targets has increased during this mandate period. Forecasts indicate Sweden will still have emissions of nearly 20 million carbon dioxide equivalents by 2024, representing only a 50% reduction instead of the required 100%. Government policy in 2023 will increase Sweden's emissions significantly in 2024, and in the budget bill for 2024, the government used more financial reform space on decisions that counteract achieving climate targets than on initiatives that help achieve them.
In the transport sector and energy policy, the mandate period has been characterized by postponing decisions, especially in the transport sector. Electrification has slowed, transport emissions have increased, and conditions for wind power have worsened, according to the Climate Policy Council. Emissions from domestic transport, except domestic flights, are to be reduced by at least 70 percent by 2030 compared to 2010, but current policies are moving in the opposite direction.
The government's action plan has been criticized as insufficient and lacking specificity. Half of the government's action plan has led to concrete decisions, but important decisions have been postponed. The action plan does not live up to the Climate Act and lacks specificity, according to the Climate Policy Council.
Economic consequences loom large, with the Climate Policy Council warning that the government's policy could lead to EU fines of up to 40 billion kronor. The government's unpredictability has reduced industry investment willingness and worsened cost-effectiveness. Unpredictable policy deters important investments, risking Swedish jobs and weakening competitiveness.
The government's response to the report has been muted, with the Climate Policy Council presenting its evaluation to Helena Dyrssen, state secretary, as Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari could not attend due to parental leave. The government did not send a minister to receive the Climate Policy Council's report, and last year, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson also refrained from sending a minister to the council's report release.
Broader criticism from other expert bodies adds to the pressure, as the government has received sharp criticism from its own experts, including the Fiscal Policy Council and the National Audit Office.
Despite the negative assessment, some positive developments were noted, including a reduction in deforestation during the mandate period. The forest has grown faster than previously estimated, increasing carbon uptake, according to the Climate Policy Council.
Sweden's climate targets framework includes a long-term goal of zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 at the latest, with negative net emissions after 2045. Achieving zero net emissions means emissions in Sweden shall be at least 85 percent lower in 2045 compared to 1990, with remaining reductions achieved through supplementary measures. Milestone targets cover emissions under the EU's Effort Sharing Regulation, excluding those in the EU Emissions Trading System, and are set at 40 percent lower than 1990 by 2020, 63 percent lower by 2030, and 75 percent lower by 2040. Supplementary measures may be used for up to 8 percent of the 2030 target and 2 percent of the 2040 target.
For future policy, the Climate Policy Council presented ten recommendations for climate policy for the next mandate period. Starting July 1, Olof Johansson Stenman, Professor of Economics at the University of Gothenburg, will take office on the council.
Implications for industrial policy are significant, as the industrial policy will need to be changed, according to the Climate Policy Council. The distance to the EU's emissions target for 2030 is at least twice as large as the government claims, the council stated.
Unknowns remain regarding the government's specific response plans to address the Climate Policy Council's criticism and meet climate targets. Details of the Climate Policy Council's ten recommendations and the full reasons for the ministerial absence at the report presentation have not been disclosed. The government's justification for its claim about the distance to the EU's 2030 emissions target, given the council's assessment that it is at least twice as large, also remains unclear.